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> The hypothetical cleverest, most correct person possible would be right 100% of the time and therefore would never change their opinion because changing it would go from right to wrong.

The problem with this, is that most opinions are applied to most circumstances in highly contextual ways. What's the best database? It's one thing to talk about it in abstract and another entirely to talk about it for a specific project.

> Therefore a simplistic view is that the closer to that person you are, the better. Some people may even think they are that person.

When human knowledge, technology, and political circumstances mostly changed slowly, this was a good heuristic. Now, it's pretty rotten. It's better to take things up one level of indirection and instead of observing their opinions, note how they absorb new knowledge and circumstances instead. Observe if they are a good listener. Observe if they can alter their mental model in the light of new facts.

> Some people may even think they are that person.

Stay away from that person! Things change too fast nowadays. Look for the "beginner's mind."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin




> The problem with this, is that most opinions are applied to most circumstances in highly contextual ways. What's the best database? It's one thing to talk about it in abstract and another entirely to talk about it for a specific project.

That doesn't prevent someone from being right 100% of the time. It may prevent them from saying "x is the best database", but not from saying "x is the best for y use, z is the best for... etc"

The problem is with the fact that no-one is capable of always being right, not that the hypothetical person couldn't always be right.


> That doesn't prevent someone from being right 100% of the time. It may prevent them from saying "x is the best database", but not from saying "x is the best for y use, z is the best for... etc"

PG has noted that Robert Morris was one of the smartest people he knew, because he always knew when he shouldn't give an opinion.

> The problem is with the fact that no-one is capable of always being right, not that the hypothetical person couldn't always be right.

No disagreement there. A corollary: a big problem is embodied in people who don't know that the above is the case and take steps to mitigate it.




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