Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login
Some advice from Jeff Bezos (37signals.com)
449 points by timf on Oct 19, 2012 | hide | past | favorite | 137 comments



If someone can’t climb out of the details, and see the bigger picture from multiple angles, they’re often wrong most of the time.

This works both ways. If someone can't get more than one level below the surface and understand the details that form the whole, they’re also often wrong much of the time. Just ask any boss I've ever had.


Couldn’t agree more. This is one of those reasons why I desist have lawyers, media gurus, MBA (just business) as bosses of “Tech” companies.

They just don’t have it in them to jump in and out of situations to think through the most trivial of problems from multiple angles. They don’t know in “5 seconds” if something can be done or if it’s complicated. It’s often a rush to tackle competition or cutting out the oxygen and “do whatever it takes”. Ordering subordinates to “deliver” in 3 weeks.

This is precisely the reason why I love someone like Larry Page or Sergey running Google. They just knew that recruiting Urs Holzle to build world class infrastructure early on was worth it.

A lifetime of learning to take noise in & conclude on the one signal that’s worth it.


I started as a programmer and got an MBA from an ok school (top 20). The combination is very valuable (at least to me) for exactly the reason you cite: the best decisions require wading around in the mucky details.

The MBA gives you a few tools that are helpful, but mainly it's a way to brand yourself and have people give you the benefit of the doubt that you can do things other than strictly build stuff.

I personally think the anti-patterns you describe-- the "do whatever it takes" without having the first idea what that is-- are intellectually dishonest and a sort of management-by-roulette. Sometimes you get lucky and it works out, but I don't know how you'd sleep running things that way.


Oh really, what did the MBA teach you? What tools are useful in your arsenal of building a great business and product?


I also got my MBA after getting my BS in Computer Science and while I think I could have learned most everything we talked about by reading books, I did learn:

- public speaking because we had to do a presentation just about every other week

- how business people with little or no technology experience think and their perceptions about technology

- how to talk to the people in the above bullet about technology

- firing people because one of my groups had a member that was not pulling her own weight, and we were told to fire her from the group

I also agree that the branding aspect is also (somehow) helpful. I recently moved from Florida to SF and when I was looking for jobs you wouldn't believe how many people were really excited/impressed/whatever that I had an MBA in addition to being able to answer the tough software questions.

If I had a choice to go back and either spend $50k on an MBA or spend it traveling the world, I would definitely choose the latter, though.


I almost got an MBA in my twenties but decided to start a company instead. My reasoning was that it would cost me $40-50k to acquire, at which point I would need to take a job for 3-4 years to pay it off. I always knew I wanted to start a company so I figured I'd use those 5-6 years educating myself.

I don't regret the choice, but I think an MBA from a top school can expose you to more complex and big $$$ business environments than you're likely to discover on your own as an outsider without much experience.


- accounting and financial statement analysis (useful in pricing and fundraising)

- quantitative marketing models (useful in forecasting + modeling)

- market research techniques (probably the most valuable skill to building products)

- VC from two internships @ early stage funds (useful in understanding how VC's think)

- negotiations

- entrepreneurship classes on opportunity analysis, fundraising, and valuation (useful in helping to avoid solving the wrong problems; articulating the business to investors; building with the end/exit in mind)


I desist having them in general. Just lawyers are an evil necessity.


Someone obsessed with details that only support one point of view.

The previous line was important I thought. You have to understand a bit about everything. No point knowing a lot of technical details about something in a business but not understanding where you fit in that business.


I agree with what you are saying but I don't think that's what Bezos was getting at (as paraphrased, anyway).

What trait signified someone who was wrong a lot of the time? Someone obsessed with details that only support one point of view. If someone can’t climb out of the details, and see the bigger picture from multiple angles, they’re often wrong most of the time.

There are two points here: Getting lost in the details and getting stuck on a particular idea. Obviously they can reenforce each other in a bad way.


Sounds like you need to pick better bosses!


Sounds like you need to look at that quote a little bit more... I think your missing the point.


I think your[sic] missing the point.

Speaking of missing details and being wrong . . .


> Your point has gone missing.


I would argue that this is the defining factor in what makes someone intelligent or not. If you're always revising your ways of thinking about a problem, your probability of converging on a solution is vastly greater than someone with a narrow, one-track focus. In fact, another article on the HN homepage (http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/streams-of-consciousness...) elaborates on this point of trying multiple "solution paths" to arrive at an answer to a problem.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of people get it in their head that they've discovered the "right way" and dismiss every other idea. This problem is particularly notorious in subjects like quantum mechanics. The field is so confusing that people find some kind of local comprehension maximum that they get stuck in and refuse to budge from that sort of ideology (which is often the wrong ideology by the way since QM is such a deep subject. Throw some quantum field theory or standard model physics at a quantum chemistry professor or TA and they won't know what to make of it).

To give a more concrete example: did you know that a spinning ball weighs more than the same ball when it is stationary? Tell this to someone decently knowledgable in physics and there's a good chance they'll argue vehemently against you based on their misunderstanding (or misinformation) of what they've learned in the past. Sometimes the effort to convince someone of an idea like this isn't worth the time; these people are locked into one way of thinking and take it as an affront to their ego. There's limited intelligence here. Don't want to be like this? Don't get angry when someone challenges you. That's the best way to start. I've never understood why so many people get upset if you try to point out a flaw in their reasoning. I've noticed this sort of anger much less frequently on HN (on the other hand, there's significantly more "you're wrong" posts than a normal discussion board).

In fact, do a little experiment if you wish. Look through HN stories and find places where people challenge each other in the comments. If you notice someone who says "you know what -- you're correct" or "yeah, that makes more sense", there's a good chance they make a lot of intelligent posts on here. If you find someone that never concedes to anyone else, it's likely they are locked into one and only one way of thinking and are unlikely to ever do anything considered "genius".


I couldn't agree more. Just a few weeks ago I was having an argument with a coworker over programming paradigms. Every time I would step outside his comfortable knowledge zone, he'd start getting impatient and angry.

Every argument with such people is a downhill battle. I have yet to find out how to open their minds to broader perspectives. It's always back to the allegory of the cave. Even when you have them in a corner with no possible arguments, they'd still ask "why would I need that?".

People need to be curious in order to be open-minded. It's quite hard to stay curious as an adult in this world while it is inborn to children. I get extremely curious about quite a few domains myself at the cost of alienating a quite few people when I talk about them.

I found out these people are almost always very attached to their past work, and tend to do everything else in the same general direction. They are dead afraid if they change their mind, people will think everything they did before is worth nothing and so are they.

They are devoted to their tools and methods rather than their general domain of work. Tools and methods come, evolve and go but the domain they represent always endures time.


For example while rereading my post, I realized I use the word 'quite' too often. How about that.


Great comment. I appreciate the principle you're working towards, and largely agree with it. But I wonder if the analogy with Physics works well as a broad metaphor for "intelligence." The gaps between Newtonian, Quantum and Relativity model physics are singular instances of a peculiar, nearly paradoxical set of apparent contradictions that of course have yet to be fully resolved. Each is correct within its own domain, and the full realization of the implications of each requires complete commitment to the rules within the domain to the exclusion of the other models.

So the analogy can also turn around and bite you here. If a researcher in Quantum theory were to get hung up on the apparent contradictions between her own research and the implications within one of the other models, she'd risk being distracted and lose the fruitful path of research within her given domain. In this case, a certain level of myopia is helpful.

Did Einstein's tremendous resistance to Heisenberg and Bohr impugn his accomplishments in any way? Of course not. I don't think anyone would use that as an example of diminished intelligence on Einstein's part.

Your broader point is valid: be open to other viewpoints. But at another level, taking up a position and defending it has its practical advantages, when the position/opinion shows fruitful results.

In software, I think of DHH's 'opinionated' approach to Rails and how that has informed and guided the whole Ruby community. For many programmers Rails' implicit, "magical" approach to coding is not as good as, for instance Django/Python's more explicit philosophy. Both points of view are valid, but the strengths of each would be diluted if they tried to do both. I also think of the Torvalds/Tanenbaum debate over Kernel architectures. Deciding which is correct is way above my pay grade, but it seems clear to me that Linus had to take up a position here and commit to it in order for Linux to thrive the way it has.

I also think of the common criticism of JavaScript's OO structures, that it's a confusing hybrid of Prototypical and Classical OOP, leading to inconsistent or confusing structures. Perhaps a thorough commitment to one or the other would have been better?

So, on the one hand a certain openness and teachability is necessary, but then at strategic points in the development of an idea, a certain stubbornness and myopia seems to be equally important to the ultimate execution of a vision.


A quote from Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance comes to mind:

> You are never dedicated to something you have complete confidence in. No one is fanatically shouting that the sun is going to rise tomorrow. They know it's going to rise tomorrow. When people are fanatically dedicated to political or religious faiths or any other kinds of dogmas or goals, it's always because these dogmas or goals are in doubt.


..or, you are seem fanatically dedicated to something because you are trying to defend the fact that the sun is going to rise tomorrow. :) I read recently that a great way to test a persons understanding of a problem, is to ask them to argue for the opposing point of view.


Newtonian physics aren't contradictory with relativistic physics; the former is just a special case of the latter. QM is also consistent with special relativity.


I did say "apparent" contradictions.

And anyway isn't the idea of a "special case" another way of saying, "at certain scales/speeds the rules of the former don't apply in the context of the latter"?

But we digress...


"So, on the one hand a certain openness and teachability is necessary, but then at strategic points in the development of an idea, a certain stubbornness and myopia seems to be equally important to the ultimate execution of a vision."

I think that's the reason why I don't seem to be able to commit myself to one thing.

But is it mostly a personal trait and forcing yourself just can't work? How should it be possible to switch between openness and stubbornness on demand?

Perhaps that's the reason why there are different personal traits, because switching doesn't work, so it's easier to get the balance by different personal traits, arguing against each other.

There might be personalities, which are able to balance themself better, but I don't seem to be one of them.


> did you know that a spinning ball weighs more than the same ball when it is stationary?

Did you know that the Earth's rotation itself adds about 2.38 billion metric tons to its mass, and we have the Soviet Union to thank for figuring that out?

http://infranetlab.org/blog/2008/12/harnessing-the-energy-fr...


The linked article has a problem with angular momentum conservation.

"Give me a lever long enough, and a place to stand, and I'll move the world" - Archimedes

The proposed plan lacks a place to stand. Unless angular momentum is given to an extra-terrestrial object, the angular momentum of the Earth+apparatus system cannot change. While Earth's rotation rate could be slowed by turning on such a gyroscope, if you ever brought the gyroscope back to rest, Earth would be right back where it started. As Earth's moment of inertia and angular velocity would be the same as when you began, so would Earth's kinetic energy. The most energy you can get back from the gyroscope is the energy you put in to spin it up.

It is the same as the sadness that is http://xkcd.com/162/ Only the first turn's angular acceleration makes a difference in Earth's angular velocity/momentum. After that, it's just maintenance (which, in the case of the comic, still buys you time).

It is not dissimilar from trying to permanently stop a train from inside a boxcar. You can't; not without external help.

The tides slow Earth's rotation and generate heat, but the angular momentum exchange alters the lunar and solar orbits; the Sun and Moon are places to stand. Gravity is the lever.

If I'm in error, please let me know. I'd love to correct my understanding.


Hmm.... > The amount of energy in the earth is vast – the kinetic energy of rotation alone is 2.137 x 1029 Joules

10^29?


> Don't want to be like this? Don't get angry when someone challenges you. That's the best way to start. I've never understood why so many people get upset if you try to point out a flaw in their reasoning.

This is one of the first things I tell our new hires - please call us on doing something stupid or being closed-minded. Just like a child, ask "why" all the time. We may have the right solution in place to cover bizarre edge cases that they don't know about yet, but it's just as possible that their fresh perspective is a far better way to approach the problem.

I'll get annoyed if people are challenging stuff just for the sake of it, but any time there's a genuine improvement being proposed it's a welcome discussion.


I only took high school physics and a Google search isn't returning anything. Could you tell me why a spinning ball weighs more than a stationary ball?

Another comment seems to claim that since E=mc2, rotational energy can be converted to to mass and viola, the earth is heavier because it has more energy! But that doesn't make sense to me.

Maybe frame dragging has something to do with it? Your pulling of space-time through rotation looks the same as your pulling of space-time from gravity so you appear heavier?

Or is it for the same reason that moving bodies are heavier? Every point of the ball is moving and therefore heavier, the fact that it's rotating makes no differece.


"Mass" is an overloaded word. Nowadays, when physicists refer to a particle's mass, they are referring to what may more specifically be called its "rest-mass" or "invariant-mass". This is a property fundamental to the particle, much as how charge or spin is. This value never changes, and it is associated with a certain amount of energy (E=mc^2).

"Relativistic-mass" is the other use of "mass", although I prefer to just use the word "energy". As a particle's velocity increases, its relativistic-mass / energy increases as well, but its rest-mass does NOT. So you take mc^2 + the kinetic energy of the particle, and that gives you the total energy of the particle.

The gravitational force is a function of total energy [1]. This is why gravity bends the trajectories of photons (and other bosons) even though these particles have no rest-mass. The gravitational force between two systems is a function of the total energy of each system regardless of whatever kind of stuff makes up the system.

For an example, consider the earth + moon system. If you were to "weigh" this system, and then weigh the earth and moon separately, you would find that the sum of the individual weights is more than the sum of the two body system. This is because of the binding energy between the earth and the moon (which is negative). It is interesting to note that this potential energy is roughly equivalent to the mass of everyone on earth.

[1] Gravity is really unique in this regard. No other force is like it.


My physics prof used to say "physics is just the study of units". If you're getting a strange answer, you've probably misunderstood the units of measure somewhere.


This is why I feel you need to be really precise when talking about science. As you said, "mass" refers to "rest-mass". So I can't help but feel that your original statement is really just a play on words to try and trick people.



It looks like the other commenter was completely right. Thanks.


Well stated, and I agree wholeheartedly. For now.


"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" - Emerson.

When I first read that quote in early High School I didn't understand it. It was the kind of thing that ate at me, I could not get what he was trying to say. To me, consistency was an important part of life; the old adage that you stick to your word. However, that quote transcends the idea of being consistent, because when you often make decisions without all of the information (especially in startups). As new information becomes available, you have to incorporate it into your decision. Sometimes it makes you look like a dick, or someone that doesn't know what direction they want to go to, but that's where different skills (leadership and sales) come in to be able to hold people together.


The full sentence, which should relate to the issues of politics elsewhere in the thread: "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines."


Also often misquoted by leaving out "A foolish" so programmers and designers can dodge criticism on their APIs or designs.


To be inconsistent is the easiest thing in the world: just refuse to think about the meaning of what you believe or do. I don't think the point of Bezos's remark was that we should aspire to be inconsistent, but rather, we should be open to considering that our ideas might be wrong.

A better quote for this idea: "Contradictions do not exist. Whenever you think you are facing a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong."--Ayn Rand


Here's a contradiction for you: Ayn Rand is usually wrong.


'Contradictions do not exist' is nonsense. Contradictions exist all over the place. Any time you get two people together you'll have contradictions due to viewpoint, experience, perspectives. Denying that contradictions exist is a child-like view of the world. Working with the contradictions of life, now that's the fun and the challenge, isn't it?


Of course different people will have beliefs that contradict each other, but by the definition of a contradiction, they can't both be right. Likewise, if two of your own beliefs end up contradicting each other in the end, then one of those beliefs was wrong. That's the meaning of the quote.

Just letting a contradiction sit there is the lazy thing to do--it's the resolving of contradictions that's the fun part!


Ah, but that is not a contradiction. If two people differ one some item of discussion it is not a contradiction. One of them is wrong.


_At least one_ of them is wrong.


Nitpicking.


"Anyone who denies the law of non-contradiction should be beaten and burned until he admits that to be beaten is not the same as not to be beaten, and to be burned is not the same as not to be burned."--Avicenna


A human brain is but a finite machine, therefore there are only finitely many propositions which you believe. Let us label these propositions p1, p2, ..., pn, where n is the number of propositions you believe. So you believe each of the propositions p1, p2, ..., pn. Yet, unless you are conceited, you know that you sometimes make mistakes, hence not everything you believe is true. Therefore, if you are not conceited, you know that at least one of the propositions, p1, p2, ..., pn is false. Yet you believe each of the propositions p1, p2, ..., pn.


Humor?


What about the quantum superposition of burned and not-burned?


Pseudo-scientific unwarranted conclusion -- the metaphysical implications of QM are not conclusive.


Keeping an open mind is a great philosophy, so long as your mind doesn't change so quickly that no one can coordinate actions with you. But I'm having a difficult time inferring the significance of this post.

On the one hand, if I'm constantly changing my mind, and my mind tends to change toward a stable, slow-changing correct solution, by definition, I'll be "right a lot", so long as I've had sufficient time to converge. In any case, I'll be right a lot more than either a person whose mind does not tend to change toward the correct solution, or someone whose mind does not change. This seems true by definition.

On the other hand, if the correct solution changes rapidly and dramatically, and my mind does not change as quickly, I will trivially be wrong a lot.

Likewise, focusing too much on "details that only support one point of view" seems wrong by construction, unless you magically pick the right point of view to begin with.

I'm not trying to be snarky here, seriously. I just feel like I must be missing the significance. I've reread the post several times, but I don't see it. Perhaps someone could enlighten me?


As Keynes said, "When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?"

When I was younger, I didn't know what confirmation bias was. I had to be introduced to the concept. After being introduced, I was able to make better decisions. Although it may seem trivially true to you (now?), it's not to everyone.

You may be reading more into "change their minds a lot" than is intended. A lot in this context means "more than most people". There's a reason phrases like "strong opinions, weakly held" become popular in rationalist circles. It's an emphasis on better decision making.

I think the first time I heard about this idea was in Marilyn vos Savant's Brain Building. She argued that societal infatuation with "having the courage of your convictions" is not the redeeming quality it's made out to be. She mentioned that she could always give her opinion on an issue, but she was also always prepared to change her opinion upon new information.

I'm pretty sure Bezos does not mean you should change your mind 180 degrees at each new contradictory piece of information. Like a Bayesian spam filter, if you've had lots of pieces of evidence for one position, it should take lots or very significant new evidence to change that position.

Decision making biases of various sorts are my chief pet peeve in modern life. It's almost impossible to discuss public policy with people, even in the smartest online forums I know. I think it's banned at Less Wrong. When I listen to the media, I spend most of my time ticking of the biases I hear.


>When I was younger, I didn't know what confirmation bias was. I had to be introduced to the concept. After being introduced, I was able to make better decisions.

Hah! You only think that because you're not counting the bad decisions.

>Decision making biases of various sorts are my chief pet peeve in modern life. It's almost impossible to discuss public policy with people, even in the smartest online forums I know. I think it's banned at Less Wrong. When I listen to the media, I spend most of my time ticking of the biases I hear.

But biases are like stereotypes in that they're shortcuts your mind has developed based on past experience. That's what people used to call "wisdom".


Not to be snarky or pedantic, but you're describing a Heuristic, not a bias. On the other hand, Wisdom is in large part knowing what not to do as a starting point. It may be wrong, which would be in error, but a true bias probably not.

___________

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristic http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_bias Sherlock holmes: eliminate the impossible, and what is left, however improbable is the truth. &tc.


You're right about heuristics, but the relevant wiki page for bias is really "Cognitive Bias"[1] rather than "Statistical Bias".

Also Holmes is not a good example of a rationalist; his main ability comes from being a fictional protagonist. Holmes cannot be a much better source of rationality advice than Conan Doyle, who quite literally believed in fairies.

[1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_Bias


This is actually a very good comment. Some of these ideas are nested, logically. A Heuristic is not per-se biased, although a subset of heuristics is in fact associated with the origin of the term 'cognitive bias'. Viz,

Although much of the work of discovering heuristics in human decision-makers was done by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman,[4] the concept was originally introduced by Nobel laureate Herbert A. Simon. Gerd Gigerenzer focuses on how heuristics can be used to make judgments that are in principle accurate, rather than producing cognitive biases


Significance of the post - This is a list of common characteristics that Jeff has seen in people he considers to be geniuses. Maybe it is possible that if us normal people adopt these characteristics into our own identity, we might be able to achieve genius status as well.

As far as the details you get into about the constantly changing mind, the solution changing rapidly, and focus on self supporting details, I think you have made a mis-step with the idea of a rapidly changing solution.

If there is a correct solution to a problem, it will never change. Our understanding of the solution can change, the problem could change which would require a new solution. But the correct solution (again assuming one exists) to a set problem can not change.

When he is talking of this changing mind, he is referring to a human's natural process to build it's understanding of our environment, or some problem space, on previous data and conclusions. The problem that most people have is they accept their many previous conclusions as fact, so they are unable to see problem from the correct perspective, because that perspective would require some previous belief to be wrong, thus they never consider that correct perspective. A good example here would be a creationists inability to come to correct scientific conclusions because they believe the world is only a few thousand years old. Bill Nye!

But the worst kind of person to be if you desire to reach genius status is one that searches for validation of their beliefs over truth. Most of us have this in us, I know I do even though I think of myself as open minded. The best example for this would be for you to go out and debate a friend with opposing political views. At some point you will find yourself defending something that you don't fully understand, your friend will make a valid point, and this little asshole inside you will tell you to defy his point at all costs. But you won't, because you started this conversation searching for truth over validation, and then you will consciously understand the desire to search for validation.


If we pop another stack frame, I think there's a deeper level of meaning to the statement "Smart people change their minds".

Smart people are open to evidence and argument. But also I think many really smart people recognise that their own cognition is a mutable thing, that the mind changes as we age and that we can play a role in that. They change their minds.

By immersing themselves in hard, interesting problems, surrounding themselves with other smart or inspiring people and by savouring experiences - that they change the thoughts that occur to them, the memories they can build upon, and the way in which they can form conclusions.

Maybe the really really smart people can even direct change in their mind about how they change their mind.

Then again, maybe that kind of meta-cogitation is tail-recursive.


He's not talking about changing your mind out of changing your mind's sake. But only consider that you might be wrong and be just open to change your mind, if that proves to be the right thing. This might sound obvious, but the point he's making is that most people don't do this. And it's one of the most remarkable characteristics of smart people, it's that they do change their mind when needed.

Average people think the the genius are genius because they're right all the time. But that's not the case. We're all human and we're all wrong a lot. The most remarkable characteristic of geniuses is that they realize they're wrong a lot, while others live under the illusion they're right a lot. Both the average and the genius are wrong often. What sets both apart is the genius notices it, changes his course and -- at the end of the day -- makes a better decision.

The significant bit to take from here is, don't try to be right at your first impression. You're not dumb for getting it wrong the first time. It's ok, just be a skeptic, think about it and don't be afraid to change if you later find that you were wrong.


Maybe it's obvious, but I think the observation resembles an NP-complete problem: it's easy to verify that it is true, but finding it is difficult.


Good advice but I'm curious about:

"Jason Fried is the fastest white man you'll ever meet."

Is Jason actually really fast and/or was he an athlete at a prior time?


Jason, I found a little bio of you that said, "Jason Fried is the fastest white man you'll ever meet. He has curly hair and a sunny disposition. He loves to travel, play hoops, and watch sunsets from his roof deck. He wishes he could break dance." Is that all true?

JF: That was an old bio that someone wrote for me. I guess it's probably all true, except for the break dancing part. I really don't have any desire to do that.

http://www.tompeters.com/printer_friendly.php?print=1&no...


That whole interview was a good read, thanks.


That stood out to me too... is there an inside joke? What's the white have to do with it?


Seems like a throwaway joke to me; nothing to over-analyze.


Well, Most Asians have awesome APM or are great at table tennis. Black people tend to be great at running really fast. It makes sense doesn't it?:)


Yeah, it was really weird hitting the bottom of the article only to find a vaguely racist nonsensical byline.


I'm not going to defend the byline (because it's cheap and inappropriate for the context) but there is a distinction between racial humor and racist humor. Not everything that addresses the concept of race is automatically racist, especially when it's not mean-spirited or demeaning.

It's a line that I'm not clever enough to tread, but other people seem to pull it off. Look at Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder. Very racial, not really racist.


> especially when it's not mean-spirited or demeaning.

This is a common misunderstanding about the nature of racism. Read about Asian Americans and the model minority.


I don't see how you get from "model minority" to "absolutely any discussion related to race is racist".

Sure, some things that aren't mean-spirited or demeaning are also racist, but that doesn't mean that everything is. Am I missing something? Serious question.


I don't think is racist. I'm hispanic and I don't feel offended of white people calling themselves white :-) because they're white.


I suspect the racist tag was applied because stereotypically white men are slower runners than black men. But as far as racism goes that's... not to mention that it's a white guy talking about himself.


While I'm generally happy with the position that white guys can take it, I think it's still racist to imply white men are slow, whether one is a white guy or not.


It's not really racist to say something like that especially when there is strong supporting evidence.

Racism is where you advocate treating somebody differently because of these differences. So it would be racist to say "White men are too slow therefor should be banned from taking part in the olympics"


No, it isn't. It is not at all racist to acknowledge the physiological differences between different ethnic groups. It is well established that a higher leg-to-torso length ratio correlates with faster sprint times. Conversely, a lower leg-to-torso ratio correlates with faster swimming.

Racism has nothing to do with facts. It is all about promoting hatred based on superficial differences.


While certainly a seemingly off-color (no pun intended, I swear) remark, this is an interesting topic that came to my attention during the London Olympic games. Of the ~80 men who have run a sub-10 second 100m dash, only one or two of them have been Caucasian, though Jason Fried was not among the list. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10-second_barrier#Ethnicity


Yeah, this jarred me as well. Vaguely racist.


I never understood why consistent opinions are considered a good thing, it doesn't make any sense. If I realize I'm wrong, why should I stick to the wrong opinion?


The hypothetical cleverest, most correct person possible would be right 100% of the time and therefore would never change their opinion because changing it would go from right to wrong.

Therefore a simplistic view is that the closer to that person you are, the better. Some people may even think they are that person.

Realising that you are not going to be correct 100% of the time is the first step. The second step is working out when you are wrong, so you know when to change your opinion. Nobody manages both these steps all the time, some people rarely manage either.


The hypothetical cleverest, most correct person possible would be right 100% of the time and therefore would never change their opinion because changing it would go from right to wrong.

A subtly different view: The hypothetical cleverest, most correct person possible would be right close to 100% of the time because they would change any wrong opinion almost immediately.

And with this view, the closer you are to that person, the better you really are.


That's a much more realistic cleverest person, but in terms of hypotheticals it is clearly better to be right 100% of the time than to almost immediately change your opinion the 1% of the time you start off wrong.


I believe that's an error in perception that has lead us to religion and other "I'm always right" worldviews.

Actually, no, it is not better.


> The hypothetical cleverest, most correct person possible would be right 100% of the time and therefore would never change their opinion because changing it would go from right to wrong.

The problem with this, is that most opinions are applied to most circumstances in highly contextual ways. What's the best database? It's one thing to talk about it in abstract and another entirely to talk about it for a specific project.

> Therefore a simplistic view is that the closer to that person you are, the better. Some people may even think they are that person.

When human knowledge, technology, and political circumstances mostly changed slowly, this was a good heuristic. Now, it's pretty rotten. It's better to take things up one level of indirection and instead of observing their opinions, note how they absorb new knowledge and circumstances instead. Observe if they are a good listener. Observe if they can alter their mental model in the light of new facts.

> Some people may even think they are that person.

Stay away from that person! Things change too fast nowadays. Look for the "beginner's mind."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin


> The problem with this, is that most opinions are applied to most circumstances in highly contextual ways. What's the best database? It's one thing to talk about it in abstract and another entirely to talk about it for a specific project.

That doesn't prevent someone from being right 100% of the time. It may prevent them from saying "x is the best database", but not from saying "x is the best for y use, z is the best for... etc"

The problem is with the fact that no-one is capable of always being right, not that the hypothetical person couldn't always be right.


> That doesn't prevent someone from being right 100% of the time. It may prevent them from saying "x is the best database", but not from saying "x is the best for y use, z is the best for... etc"

PG has noted that Robert Morris was one of the smartest people he knew, because he always knew when he shouldn't give an opinion.

> The problem is with the fact that no-one is capable of always being right, not that the hypothetical person couldn't always be right.

No disagreement there. A corollary: a big problem is embodied in people who don't know that the above is the case and take steps to mitigate it.


People's opinions usually have probabilistic nature, i.e. "From what I know I think X is the most probable conclusion". The problem is that they know too little, because people don't have time to study everything in detail.


I think it goes back to politics. It's considered a bad thing in that arena because people can't trust that you will keep your word on the platform that you hired them on. This is especially true for the divisive issues like abortion, healthcare, etc....

I think it's a stupid policy in general though.


I understand it in a similar way...

People like security and therefore stability, it's one of our basic needs. We like stable environment, including people's opinions. Imagine everyone changes their opinion all the time, it could be fun but not everyone would like that :)

Also, people who often change opinions may look dishonest, opportunistic and unpredictable.


The whole concept of "flip flopping" being a bad thing is something from the political arena that spilled out into a broader social context.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with changing your mind as your understanding evolves.


I'm not sure I buy the theory about it originating in political discourse.

It's a very basic concept. Changing your mind almost necessarily involves admitting you were wrong in the first instance — if you do not admit it outright, someone else will likely confront you on it.

People don't like admitting they were wrong. It makes one look bad, and provides one's enemies with ammunition.


Politics often has a lot to do with it. I don't mean Politics politics, but rather, office politics and social politics. Social signaling plays a huge role in how we act, and in what types of traits we attribute to the actions of others.

In a typical Big Corporate workplace, to be seen as quickly decisive is to be seen as a strong leader. To change one's mind is to project weakness and indecisiveness. Perhaps in complete contradiction to Bezos's opinion, the prevailing opinion among most corporate managers -- even C-level execs -- is that those who can quickly arrive at a conclusion are the smartest, and are most likely to be correct. In reality, we all know where this usually leads. But there's still a prevailing opinion that jumping to conclusions, and doing anything to support them, is the ideal way to act.

Compounding this problem is a well-known and well-documented cognitive bias, present in some extent in all human beings. It's known as the "confirmation bias." Essentially, the way our brain works is to draw up a quick hypothesis about a situation, and then to look for any information that supports the hypothesis. We actually have to train our minds to look for contradictory or challenging evidence, because doing so is not hard-wired into us.

The confirmation bias happens at the subconscious level, and there's actually good evidence that it served as an adaptive, successful trait in human evolution. Back when we lived in the wild, we didn't have a lot of time to analyze threats, weather patterns, or other major situations. So being able to mentally "shorthand" a situation was a benefit. It still is in many instances, but it becomes a hurdle when we need to make longer-term, more complex decisions. In those cases, we need to bring conscious, analytical thought to the table.


Consistent opinions are a good thing as long as unbiased, informed data continues to support that choice. One must know, though, that it's not infallible, but it's good enough, given the information provided.

Consistency is good. Blind devotion is bad.


Getting to the new insight is only one reason why people change their opinions.

Often people change their argument istead because at new time different position benefits them most. Or because they don't think trough what they are saying. Or there are simply people who like to win. In my experience the later ones happen lot more often than people getting better understanding.

Changing opinions in smart people are often not oposites of previous one, but upgrade of previous position.


It's because if you change your mind frequently enough, people stop listening to you or giving your opinion any weight. I'm not saying this is right, or that it occurs as often as is feared, but it is the fear, and it does occur.


This is an ironic question: on the one hand, you say consistency doesn't make sense, on the other hand, the root meaning of "doesn't make sense" is precisely to be inconsistent.


Sure, that's his advice today, but what will it be tomorrow?


Even if the advice changes tomorrow, the current one hold true nevertheless!


Hey, guess what, Jeff Bezos stopped by our office today. I just wanted everyone to know that, so I posted about something platitudinous he said.


Being right a lot is a core value of that Amazon requires in it's leaders. The rest of the list is available here:

http://www.amazon.com/Values-Careers-Homepage/b?ie=UTF8&...


I hadn't seen this. Great list. I especially like "As we do new things, we accept that we may be misunderstood for long periods of time."


Whether you are an individual contributor or a manager of a large team, you are an Amazon leader.

They are also meant for ICs, not just people-manager leaders. They are used as touchstones for interviews and performance evaluations.


Bezos's observation reminds me of Philip Tetlock's conclusions in "Expert Political Judgement" (http://press.princeton.edu/titles/7959.html). Tetlock studied it pretty rigorously and came to a number of conclusions, but the central thesis was that people who got things right the most were people who thought by building up lots of competing models and evaluating all of them (ie, having lots of little ideas) rather than guiding all their decisions by a single ideology.


Can't believe it. You had Bezos for 2 hours and this is all you bother to share with us?


The rest of his insights might give them some competitive advantage; perhaps, however, he spent two hours extolling the virtues of assembling your own desks and this bit was the only thing worthwhile to happen. I'll trust that they curated the talk in the way most likely to drive page views, not in the way most likely to enlighten the reader.


And the sad thing is that society often punishes people who change their minds or "flip-flop". See politics.


I think flip-flopping in politics is often a politician changing his view in a short amount of time and not admitting to the prior held view.

If a politician changes his view and publicly states that he held a very different view before but he was swayed by x, y, and z then I think nobody would accuse them of flip-flopping.


Good point, but people also need to understand the explanation, and they have to believe the change of mind is genuine and that x, y, and z are the genuine reasons (as opposed to some other contingent or craven reason) for the switch.

For example, John Kerry's "for it before I was against it" sounded to some like he was dissembling and hiding that he may have changed his opinion on an appropriations bill simply because the wars were becoming less popular with the public.


If you're only changing what you're saying merely to temporarily win your audience's mindshare, it doesn't matter if you're a smarmy CEO, politician, lawyer, or programmer.

You can honestly change your opinion and point of view, and you can also lie. Changing your opinion and point of view is not seen as negative, but deception is generally frowned upon to the point of societies making fraud a higher level crime (see Perjury).


Flip-flopping in politics is often an insincere change of position for the purpose of chasing votes.


One thing to remember about politics is that there is a much higher degree of moral positions. Flipflopping on moral positions make people think the preson not worthy of trust, in a whole other way than flipflopping on technical solutions since technical solutions are a lot less dependent on core values and soft issues without hard truths compared to how politics is.


That's true, except the definition is elastic in politics. A candidate who thought a certain way at 18 years old is expected to still think the same way - on all opinions - at 45, which is absolutely ludicrous.


That's a strawman though, nobody actually says that. People complain about "flip flopping" when they see a politician campaigning and he or she says one thing on tuesday, something contradictory on wednesday, and then is back to the previous position again on thursday.


Usually when I see it, it is people complaining that a candidate endorsed different viewpoints than they did during past elections (in other words, they think something different than they did years ago). Kerry and Romney both come to mind (though to be clear, both (or at least Romney) have been accused of the type you are talking about as well). Specifically I have heard some people claim that Romney has flip-flopped because they perceive a difference between his positions as a presidential candidate and as a governor.


I think a lot of that is just that if the person in question clearly does just say whatever they think people want to hear, then a dramatic change in position appears more likely to just be more of the same. Romney suddenly being against "obamacare" is a good example. It doesn't appear that he changed his mind because of new information, since he still claims his version of the same thing is great, but Obama's is terrible.


Similarly, Romney has recently said "I have never said I was pro-choice" but he did, multiple times, say that he "supports a woman's right to choose".

So, the verb form is OK but the noun form is absolutely not.


Actually, it has been used many times. Most recently, Bill Clinton was forced to defend things he wrote when he was at Oxford; George Bush was named as a person whose foreign policy platform was unchanged since he was 16, just to name two.


"chasing votes"

Or perhaps another way of looking at it is they are trying to represent voters better. Since that's, well, their job.

We should not get onto politicians for representing voters, rather than themselves. Changing their approach to public policy is a very good way for a public official to better represent voters.


"Strong opinions, weakly held"


I too am frequently right, after being wrong a bunch of times.


Right, the point is to not stay wrong.


"A professor's job is to profess - often wrong, but never in doubt."


Nothing to see here, but, of course, straight from the horse's mouth..)

This particular trait is of a much bigger idea - an active, aware, never satisfied beginners's mind, popularized in US by http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shunryu_Suzuki

A settled, stale, stagnant mind is a worst possible mental decease from a Buddhist perspective, and, ironically, the most desired state of the mind for a member of a totalitarian country or organization.)


I work with someone who spends way too much time (IMO) making sure that he's not wrong. Typically this involves not taking a stand until the results are in and then claiming the position all along. Or simply lying about his position. After witnessing this repeatedly I basically lost all respect for this person and really dread any interaction.

Personally I don't care if someone (including myself) is right or wrong. I often have to make technology recommendations that may turn out to be wrong years down the line and end up costing the organization time and money. So far I've been pretty lucky. I find it helpful to always include caveats in my proposals and explain reasoning behind my recommendations. Of course putting in the time to understand the issue, the market and the history is key.

I don't have a problem taking a stand and be proven wrong or adjusting my position when new information becomes available. However, I wonder if this attitude is hurting my standing with the organization compared with this other guy who never seems to be wrong.


Sounds like a modest twist on the Hedgehog and the Fox, star of a thousand pop-science essays in the last few years:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hedgehog_and_the_Fox

Note that (1) I agree and (2) there is nothing silly about the comments or the link.


Just the other day during a design discussion I was arguing for X instead of Y and was reminded that I was the one who introduced Y earlier in the discussion. I was finally able to bring out Walt Whitman during a technical discussion and responded "I contain multitudes". :)


Makes a lot of sense to be honest. If ideas aren't held too dearly you'll be able to weed out the bad ones. A lot of people (myself included) have a certain irrational loss aversion when it comes to ideas. I'm sure one could find plenty of articles on this on LessWrong.


In other words, be a scientist. Consider the truth as a distant target, and our understanding only as an approximation based on the evidence we have right now.

Scientists have known this for years. They have made it their whole way of life—because it works, and it's true.

Smart people in all walks of life most certainly follow those same kinds of scientific principles. Bezos is spot on, there's just an entire branch of knowledge that's been spot on way before he was.


He's observed that the smartest people are constantly revising their understanding, reconsidering a problem they thought they’d already solved.

I think he's spot on, and this has been the basis for my manifesto (http://jamesthornton.com/manifesto) -- I like to think of it as continually refining your perspective.


Their angel investor.


This is kind ironic given that 37signals' is vehemently stubborn about many of their points of view.


Thank you for a great quality post. And, folks, please do not fear being called a "flip-flopper"!


When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir? - John Maynard Keynes


In other words: breadth-first search is better when dealing with hard problems


Steve Jobs was also well known for his strong, but changing, opinions.


Off-topic: how do they get typography so right?! If I just throw those fonts on my site they will look crappy, but their articles are always great looking.


Should we all vote for Mitt Romney then? jk :)


Basically, people are stupid because they don't realize how stupid they are.


Curious as to what Bezos thinks of the current state of politics. "He said people who were right a lot of the time were people who often changed their minds." Maybe he's voting for Mitt Romney.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: