This will be a huge milestone for the Waymo team. I had not thought they would get here until 2025 at least, so I guess I'm overly cynical these days :-).
I hope that a successful launch in Phoenix will expand out to other locales because this capability is a huge win for those groups that would otherwise not be able to make these trips.
It is also remarkable that it is possible to replace a regular vehicle operated by a human as a livery service, with an incredibly complex machine and still make a business case out of it. That says a lot about how far computers have come in the last couple of decades.
Personally, I think that all the self driving efforts would do well to be tightly coupled to city planning going forward and we should be specifically regulating toward "driverless zones" where a grid system can handle all traffic, a city switch, effectively.
There are efforts to fit driverless cars to horrifically planned streets, but I don't see any cities approaching it from the other direction.
This is all said though because I freaking hate cars and the entire ecosystem surrounding them.
>but I don't see any cities approaching it from the other direction.
Can you blame them? There's barely money to maintain existing infrastructure, let alone rework it. It doesn't matter if it would pay for itself in 25 years, if that were the case we would be powered by 100% nuclear power years ago, investors don't bite on those numbers and republicans don't pass those budgets.
Maybe the driverless car players should work with the cities to improve infrastructure. They have all the capital, after all. However that logical reasoning isn't how the valley plays ball. Look at bird, look at uber, look at any 'pioneer' service entering these cities. They stomp their way into markets without trying to reach out to local governments and work with them, the city officials of course are annoyed and pass unproductive regulations, then the tech companies throw a tantrum and plead their pitiful case to their users. It's childish behavior that wastes everyone's time and money.
This is what should really be happening with the cities viying for the business of Amazon, Twitter, whomever.
I'm constantly flabbergasted by how short sighted both cities and companies are about the long term impact agreements will make on a given area. They think in terms of placating concerns via taxes but don't look at the true opportunity loss from not addressing future quality of life in an area. FFS tech companies should deeply be judged on this factor when being assessed for a new HQ, as they clearly are not currently going through a rigorous process which will play out in a decade plus.
I'm very pro-train and anti-car, but in many situations you still need a motorized means of transport for the last mile. I think on-demand self-driving cars could be a good match to solve the last mile (together with bicycles).
> Self driving cars are totally the wrong direction we should be going in, and it's going to cost the US more in the long run
This goes against the research I’ve seen, which suggests a self-driving fleet can more-efficiently transport a dispersed population like America’s than rail. (For the relevant distances.)
Also, anecdote: after Uber, I use the subway and regional rail system more. It solves the last-mike and “should I rent a car” problems.
The car drives you to the bus, the bus drives you to the train, simple. The train is scheduled to depart at the best time for all the buses to arrive at. Less waiting, less buses and trains that are half empty.
For this to work the self driving car needs to be expensive enough for people to care to organize their trips this way. So we will need to pass road tax in cities to account for the externality of congesting the roads.
As these cars are driven by corporates with constant GPS monitoring this will be more easily enforced than ever
Yes, ideally driverless cars would evolve together with the cities they drive in.
Unfortunately, it would take a decade for the government bureaucracies involved to even get started with that effort, so we'll have to make do with just the vehicle side for quite a while.
Volvo was looking into that. They want to drive magnetized nails into pavement on some Swedish highways to provide a lane reference. That can be sensed through snow, and snowplows can be equipped to sense it, so it has uses beyond self driving.
"Launch" invokes a mental image of a rocket taking off, but that isn't really an apt metaphor. Waymo has already had vehicles on some routes move passengers without safety drivers onboard. They've been charging some EZ Riders for their rides. When they do 'launch', the service still will not be available to the general public. The major thing they'll be doing is unveiling their new brand, whatever it is. They've been gradually expanding the scale, range, and capabilities of their fleet in the Phoenix metro area and they will continue to do so.
If the self driving tech could drive the airport rental car, amusement park parking, and Las Vegas Strip shuttles, as well as other similar shuttling venues, then that would expose lots of people to the tech in fairly constrained environments. This seeds a lot of citizens to react favorably when these livery services show up later in their cities.
I’d wait for the service to actually exist, open to the general public, before congratulating them. If they were confident, they would announce a date or just announce that it’s open for business. This sort of “soon, seriously!” announcement is all about satisfying investors, regulators, and business partners who presumably are holding their feet to the fire on their earlier promises.
Which investors? They have Google at their backs, why do they need to impress investors? My reading of this roll-out is that they're first to some kind of service, and they've been first to many other milestones. However, due to wanting to prevent an Uber situation at all costs, they are taking it slow and careful.
That happens a lot - a technology is hyped for so long that people become disenchanted, then boom suddenly it arrives and it is amazing. Think flat screen TVs, touch screen input, powered flight.
I think a similar thing will happen with VR/AR when it eliminates the efficiency gap of remote work.
I hope that a successful launch in Phoenix will expand out to other locales because this capability is a huge win for those groups that would otherwise not be able to make these trips.
It is also remarkable that it is possible to replace a regular vehicle operated by a human as a livery service, with an incredibly complex machine and still make a business case out of it. That says a lot about how far computers have come in the last couple of decades.