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I don't believe that p value. the non-founder curve looks fine, but the founder curve has bins with some pretty serious deviations from expected, so you are overestimating your confidence in your curve fit.


The curves seem to look a bit deceiving, probably something in how our eyes work - switch to the 'count' tab instead of the 'percent' tab. It's much easier to see then just how much 'flatter' the founder curve is compared to the non-founder curve, and this flatness pushes up the deviation, but it pushes up the average far more and puts the confidence interval well out of range of the non-founder curve.

Judging based off just the visual curve is not a great idea as our brains are wired up for matching patterns and not for working out these kind of differences properly. It's why math is such a good idea when making decisions.


you're kidding right? Because I can make the non-founder curve just as "flat" by yanking up the scale on the percentage graph to 10,000%. The reason why it looks "flat" is because when you go to "count" the website scales both curves the same y-axis. I think you mean to say something like "kurtosis" - which is, if anything, obscured to the eye by the process of flattening by scaling.

And math is not a good idea when you make assumptions like normality of curves which are absolutely not normal. In this case, using the t-test to calculate a p value.

I think reification of poorly done math is a bigger problem than math by eye.




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