> "The only thing you can conclude is that it's a crap shoot," Kawasaki said in a recent interview at his home office in Atherton. "You have no idea what is going to succeed."
(Guy passed up on Yahoo and Google.) I think to someone without the requisite skill necessary to evaluate the technology and people it's like a crapshoot, sure.
However, I think a more accurate analogy would be that it's poker. Luck is a factor but it's dominated by skill (execution). If you're not an expert player then it seems like it's all luck; but expert players finish at or near the top over and over again.
Start-ups are like players that don't have a track record, so you have to watch their play carefully to decide if they're good or not. But in order to do that accurately you have to be an expert yourself.
(Guy passed up on Yahoo and Google.) I think to someone without the requisite skill necessary to evaluate the technology and people it's like a crapshoot, sure.
However, I think a more accurate analogy would be that it's poker. Luck is a factor but it's dominated by skill (execution). If you're not an expert player then it seems like it's all luck; but expert players finish at or near the top over and over again.
Start-ups are like players that don't have a track record, so you have to watch their play carefully to decide if they're good or not. But in order to do that accurately you have to be an expert yourself.