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I really hope Google ends up controlling the old TV frequencies, just because it will be so much more interesting than the alternative.


Same here; I, for one, welcome our new Googly overlords. I bet there are some interesting startup ideas in this space, even (relatively) late in the game...

I do wonder about the author's offhand assertion that Google are the "odds-on favorite" to win the auction. Does anyone know if there's any evidence to back this up? Last I checked, Google were only willing to conditionally meet the opening auction price if their conditions were met, let alone whatever they'd need to pay to win the auction.


Google initially claimed they would only bid if all of the open access standards they proposed were accepted by the FCC. Not all of the rules were accepted, and the ones that were are now being challenged in court by the Telcos. It is rumored that FCC chairman Kevin Martin is now working on a proposal to at least partially reverse some of the open standards that were ratified, in response to the Telco's uproar. It is not looking good... Despite this, Google has publically stated that they will "most likely" still bid in the auction.

I have read of at least one analyst who believes that the Telcos are more likely to win the auction than Google. Possibly out right by a single carrier or through collusion between multiple. As much cash as Google has, It could be difficult for them to justify spending >$10B on a wireless spectrum when they are still perceived as an internet search company. Investors may not be very happy about that. For the Telcos, this is their core business and the expense is highly justified. While this is all speculation at this point, the consensus so far does not paint a very pretty picture for open access unfortunately. We will just have to wait a few more months and see how things play out.




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