Statistically means it's just an inductive argument for guilt, but so is being caught on camera. So I suspect that you just don't mean to use statistical at all.
The fact is there's no hard line between good and bad evidence, though I sincerely hope Bayesian equations are never the deciding factor in court cases. Math is great, but "probably guilty" just isn't good enough unless it's incredibly probable. As in, 99% probability seems to be a near certainty, but 75%? 75% is still a strong induction, but that's a 1/4 chance you're convicting an innocent person. So where do you draw the line?
Also remember that Bayesian Probability is still susceptible to bias extremely easy just by determination of how to define the variables. If I were looking to convince a jury, it would be fairly easy to tweak the variables and have a large degree of control over the resulting probability while appearing unbiased (because of Math!). So in this sense, I think that bayesian probability is pseudomathematics. Nobody's questioning the math, but the conclusions are not purely derived from math.
"Statistically means it's just an inductive argument for guilt, but so is being caught on camera. So I suspect that you just don't mean to use statistical at all."
I don't understand what you're saying. The fact that being caught on camera is an inductive argument for guilt is ultimately based on statistics or probability. What is the probability that the person on camera is the defendant?
Where do you draw the line? The American legal system, for criminal cases, draws it at "beyond a reasonable doubt", and provides no numerical guidance for what that means. But there is a line, and not wanting there to be one doesn't make it go away.
The fact is there's no hard line between good and bad evidence, though I sincerely hope Bayesian equations are never the deciding factor in court cases. Math is great, but "probably guilty" just isn't good enough unless it's incredibly probable. As in, 99% probability seems to be a near certainty, but 75%? 75% is still a strong induction, but that's a 1/4 chance you're convicting an innocent person. So where do you draw the line?
Also remember that Bayesian Probability is still susceptible to bias extremely easy just by determination of how to define the variables. If I were looking to convince a jury, it would be fairly easy to tweak the variables and have a large degree of control over the resulting probability while appearing unbiased (because of Math!). So in this sense, I think that bayesian probability is pseudomathematics. Nobody's questioning the math, but the conclusions are not purely derived from math.