Japan's economic malaise is a big topic that's mostly driven now by a rapidly aging population. Why is it aging? Low fertility rates [1]. So why are fertility rates so low? It kind of started with the housing bubble in the 1980s that created a youth unemployment crisis (ie hikikomori), which has now come to the West where we now have a youth unemployment crisis (and thus NEETs). I found this [2]:
> Japan made the same discovery thirty years earlier. The hikikomori phenomenon (young men, predominantly, who withdraw from social life entirely, sometimes for decades) emerged in the 1990s, after Japan’s asset bubble burst and the lifetime employment compact dissolved. The cultural commentary at the time, both Japanese and Western, framed it as a peculiarly Japanese pathology, something about shame and conformity and the pressure-cooker school system. This was wrong. It was a structural response to the closure of the productive ladder, and it has now appeared in every developed economy that has reproduced the same structural conditions.
It's worth noting that the US fertility rate is alos below replacement levels (~1.54) but the only thing that props up our population is immigration. Japan eschews immigration as a de facto ethnostate. South Korea is further along in that crisis. China will need to find a solution too.
But there are cultural reasons here too. Japanese work culture, pay relative to work, etc.
While the official youth unemployment rate in Niger is something like 0.5%, that includes things that wouldn't count by western standards (e.g. sustenance farming). The youth unemployment rate there, by how we measure it, is more like 50%. To call the situation in Japan or the USA a crisis compared to that is laughable. Yet they have a fertility rate of ~6 births per woman. You've come up with a fun theory, but it clearly doesn't work.
Fertility is on the decline, particularly in the west, although increasingly spreading, quite simply because it is socially unacceptable to have children. Society says you need to focus on your career instead. It creates TV shows, like "16 and Pregnant", designed to dissuade viewers from having children. So on and so forth. Social pressure is a powerful drug.
In fact, the pocket communities where certain religions that push a 'make babies' agenda are commonly observed, where the social pressure goes in the other direction, we find many families pumping out kids like there is no tomorrow. Social pressure works both ways, but the "having kids is cool" is not the prevailing social wind.
Dismissing youth employment as a concept because some countries still plow their fields by hand isn't a good argument. You can just look at peer countries and compare them. Surely you can’t think that youth unemployment does not reflect any major difference between Spain and Germany right.
You will find no dismissal of youth employment as a concept. There would be no reasonable way to dismiss the concept as one only has to quickly look outside to see that youth are employed. What was the intended purpose of introducing this nonsensical tangent?
> Your pet theories about how economies work should probably be grounded in more than 5 minutes of taking whatever bullshit you read on the internet as truth
Hey, commenting like this on HN is not cool, as the guidelines make very clear. Please remind yourself of the guidelines and make an effort to observe them if you want to keep participating here. These ones in particular should be heeded:
Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously; don't cross-examine. Edit out swipes.
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People linking LLM spam are not conversing curiously in any meaningful sense. When that LLM spam is used to blame all of a country's problems on a tiny minority of the population, I feel zero obligation to treat such a position with respect. Indeed, treating it with respect legitimises it. The person I was responding to might as well have said "Germany's economy is stagnating and fertility rate is declining because of the Jews" for how ridiculous their position is, and mine is the one that is violating guidelines for calling that out? Give me a break. I'll get off of your website.
The defiant flouncing isn't necessary, thanks. The guidelines are well established and apply no matter who or what you're replying to. If that weren't the case there would be no point having guidelines at all. It's fine to correct an incorrect fact or a bad source. You don't even have to treat a position with respect. You do have to treat other people with basic courtesy. Reaching for a Nazism analogy takes this interaction well beyond any bounds of decency, and also relevance; the parent commenter wasn't "blaming" anyone, at least not any minorities. This is only a site people think is a good place for discussing anything because enough people hold themselves to higher standards that this.
The unemployment rate doesn't capture the scope of the issue. That's true in the US and Europe too. It doesn't capture people who are undermployed, locked into lower-paid positions, have to juggle multiple casual/part-time jobs and end up doing "gig" work, which is often sub-minimum wage once you factor in depreciation.
As for Japan, in particular, we have the Lost Decades [1], where the 1980s asset bubble collapsed and the economy stagnated for 20 years. Part of this was cultural too. For all of the faults of the US banking system at the time (eg the S&L crisis), the FDIC's approach is to take over failing banks whereas Japan let essentially bankrupt banks exist and gum up the economy. They are known as zombie banks [2]. You had zombie companies too and the entire thing largely came down to avoiding a loss of face by declaring bankruptcy, restructing or doing mass layoffs.
For over a decade, you had the "employment ice age" [3], which essentially destroyed GenX at the time they'd otherwise be starting families. This continued into the 2010s with the millenial generation.
Young people aren't stupid. They can look at their environment and increasingly realize they'll have no work-life balance, be lucky to find a good job, get paid enough to live on that job, won't own a house and can't afford to have a family. I call this a crisis in hopelessness. I also think this underpins how consumer spending has remained relatively strong. People are living for experiences rather than saving for a future because they have no future.
> Japan made the same discovery thirty years earlier. The hikikomori phenomenon (young men, predominantly, who withdraw from social life entirely, sometimes for decades) emerged in the 1990s, after Japan’s asset bubble burst and the lifetime employment compact dissolved. The cultural commentary at the time, both Japanese and Western, framed it as a peculiarly Japanese pathology, something about shame and conformity and the pressure-cooker school system. This was wrong. It was a structural response to the closure of the productive ladder, and it has now appeared in every developed economy that has reproduced the same structural conditions.
It's worth noting that the US fertility rate is alos below replacement levels (~1.54) but the only thing that props up our population is immigration. Japan eschews immigration as a de facto ethnostate. South Korea is further along in that crisis. China will need to find a solution too.
But there are cultural reasons here too. Japanese work culture, pay relative to work, etc.
[1]: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/jpn/jap...
[2]: https://henryfudgeofficial.substack.com/p/degeneracy-is-a-sy...