No one knows, but it's a reasonable assumption surely. If you're theorising a AGI, that has recursive self improvement, exponential improvements seem almost unavoidable. AGI improves understanding of electronics, physics etc, that improves the AGI leading to new understandings and so on. Add in that new discoveries in one field might inspire the AGI/humans to find things in others and it seems hard to imagine a situation where theres not a lot of progress everywhere (at least theoretical progress, building new things might be slower / more costly then reasoning they would work.)
Where I'm skeptical of AI would be in the idea an LLM can ever get to AGI level, if AGI is even really possible, and if the whole thing is actually viable. I'm also very skeptical that the discoveries of any AGI would be shared in ways that would allow exponential growth; licenses stopping using their AGI to make your own, copyright on the new laws of physics and royalties on any discovery you make from using those new laws etc.
>If you're theorising a AGI, that has recursive self improvement, exponential improvements seem almost unavoidable.
Prove it.
Also, AI will need resources. Hardware. Water. Electricity. Can those resources be supplied at an exponential rate? People need to calm down and stop stating things as truth when they literally have no idea.
Well said. It does seem that many who speculate on this are not taking into account limits that more/faster processing won’t actually help much. Say an algorithm is proven to be O(n!) for all cases, at a certain size of n, there’s not much that can be done if the algorithm is needed as is.
Where I'm skeptical of AI would be in the idea an LLM can ever get to AGI level, if AGI is even really possible, and if the whole thing is actually viable. I'm also very skeptical that the discoveries of any AGI would be shared in ways that would allow exponential growth; licenses stopping using their AGI to make your own, copyright on the new laws of physics and royalties on any discovery you make from using those new laws etc.