Don’t confuse the event with the distribution. An event always either has or hasn’t occurred, no further statement can be made. It’s only in bulk that one can talk about distributions. But in this contrived anecdote, there is only one observation, one event.
Some distributions are definitely relatively stable over time, so you can absolutely make predictive statements about the future given past observations.
That's true for both biological bear population dynamics and movement patterns and for quantum tunneling bears :)
