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Probability of 1.0? Are you sure you're doing the right math? What's the probability after 6,400 years? 2.0?


I meant expected value, but I wrote "expected probably".


That's still wrong. If you have x chance of surviving each day of rock climbing then you have an x^n chance of surviving n days of rock climbing, not a 0 chance of surviving.


OK, by now we all know that GP meant expected number of fatal accidents.




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