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Is there a way to calculate significance of the fit? I.e. something similar to the Student's t-test?


Surely there is, but I still didn't figure out how to. I'm not used to work with this Wallenius distribution (indeed, I discovered it existed a few days ago, while working on this problem). To get some semblance of error bars, I just took max/min overs a couple tens of runner ups. But I explained in detail the assumptions in my reasoning and posted the source code for my analysis, so people with better statistical shops than me can replicate and improve upon it.

But the uncertainty here probably is dominated by uncertainty in the inputs. I used the lower estimates for journalists deaths, about 90 on 01/03. But some organizations publish figures as high as 130. The uncertainty in total deaths also high, I would not be surprised if 1.5-2x higher, given all missing people.




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