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geniium
on Dec 6, 2023
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Ask HN: Do you think GPT-5 will release before Gem...
> I’m bearish on LLMs in the next 1 year but bullish over the next 5 years.
I find this sentence particuarly interesting.
rkangel
on Dec 6, 2023
[–]
This is a good bet, because as a rule people overestimate progress in the short term, and underestimate it in the long term (and at the moment 5 years is at least medium term for LLMs!
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2019/01/03/estimate/
monkeydust
on Dec 7, 2023
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Yea if Gartner did one good thing is the hype curve which supports this thinking also
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle
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I find this sentence particuarly interesting.