Assuming 1% of partners have AIDS and someone had 10 partners and 35 events per partner.
.01 * (1 - .98)^ 35 = 0.5% per partner. And 1- (1 - .005) ^ 10 = ~5% chance of an infection in a lifetime.
Or working the other way if the average person with aids has 35 'events' per partner and 2.1 partners after infection the infection rate will increase.
PS: Real models include differing M/F infection rates, stratification by age and other vectors like transfusions and IV drug use.
Assuming 1% of partners have AIDS and someone had 10 partners and 35 events per partner.
.01 * (1 - .98)^ 35 = 0.5% per partner. And 1- (1 - .005) ^ 10 = ~5% chance of an infection in a lifetime.
Or working the other way if the average person with aids has 35 'events' per partner and 2.1 partners after infection the infection rate will increase.
PS: Real models include differing M/F infection rates, stratification by age and other vectors like transfusions and IV drug use.