I’m not sure I believe that people have less discretionary spending, at least in the US. According to one article[1], hotel prices are up 54% year-over-year. Anecdotally, restaurant prices are up by a similar amount compared to pre-pandemic. Things might change when all of the people with paused student loans have to resume repaying them later this year, but we’ll see.
Prices alone are not useful without volume. How is Hotel occupancy or how are dining out habits compared to pre pandemic? Maybe there are fewer customers with deeper pockets?
You make a good point, but everything seems very busy at restaurants and shopping centers to me. Many times, I have wanted to go out to some restaurant and found that it was booked out for weeks. So I’m finding the “low volume” idea hard to believe. It may be that there are fewer restaurants now than before, but demand is certainly there in my area. Some people are stretching their credit cards[1], but also people saved up while the pandemic was in high gear and that savings is not yet exhausted for everyone.
More anecdata, but I am remembering that I had to stand in line to enter the LEGO store at my local mall a couple weeks ago. I have been to that same store many times before and never had to stand in line previously.
The restaurant I go to almost every Friday for lunch almost didn’t have a table available for my party when we arrived the other day. That’s never happened before either.
Of course, there is some seasonality going on. It’s summer, the weather is gorgeous, and people want to be out doing things. But if people are hunkering down and cutting their spending, I sure as heck am not seeing it.
Where did this recent-ish "hellscape" reputation come from? San Francisco has always been a "hellscape"; there's always been homeless, crime, drugs, etc. I've been going into San Francisco since the 80s and it doesn't seem like much has changed. If anything, I think I've/we've changed to be less tolerant of that stuff. Maybe that's just part of everyone getting older. Or, maybe everyone moved to San Francisco expecting it to be paradise, but quickly discovered it has problems just like every other city. Or, maybe the reputation is just a boogeyman created by politicians and political pundits. Not sure.
Newsom is going to run for president soon. Half the articles you see about how horrible SF is include references to 'Newsom's San Francisco' even though it's been a dozen years and 3 mayors since his tenure.
The difference now is that we've turned partisan rhetoric up to eleven, demonized intellectuals, and facilitated instant communication between strangers. It's always been a "hellscape", but the discourse now just fucking sucks because it's so easy to broadcast your dumbass hot take everywhere.
You obviously haven’t been back recently. I recommend you check it out for yourself. Walk around downtown, duck into soma for a bit. It looks like the apocalypse. Visit the public injection site and watch people shoot up in public, in broad daylight. Step over the human feces. Walk into any store downtown and see every single thing under lock and key because otherwise people just walk in and make off with it.
I was downtown in December and there were two cops on every corner. They were trying to get a handle on the rampant smash and grabs. Which is laughable because while there were dozens of cops you could see em for a mile so the criminals just shifted their targets a bit. Without police and prosecutor follow through presence is useless.
There’s a feeling that crime can be committed with impunity.
Seriously if you think this is made up, go check it out, it’s actually kinda cool to go to a place where society is collapsing. A novel experience if nothing else. Feels a little like mad max.
I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic or not, but “Cerebral Valley” is pure cringe. It has the energy of a third tier tech city like Boise or Vegas trying to “make it”.
You may not like the branding but any other metro region would kill to have the density of startup activity that Hayes Valley is spawning right now.
Obviously most of these startups won't make it long term, but some will, and the connections that are being made among the participants will be an important part of tech for the next decade. I've heard many people observe they haven't felt anything like this vibe in the tech community in a long time.
What's happening in this part of SF (not just Hayes Valley, but more broadly) is definitely important.
A lot of it seems to be the machinery behind the Chesa Boudin recall taking on a life of its own by tapping into a previously-unknown donor base for right-wing causes in California.
I lived in San Francisco for the summer of '92. I couldn't get friends/family to visit from Modesto; everyone said basically the same thing as today: too expensive (even to visit), too much crime, too many "crazy people" (90s for "homeless"), and so on.
I honestly don't think San Francisco is any worse than it was 30 years ago; I just think perceptions and narratives have changed.
Yeah this is my take as well. I used to Airbnb every time I travelled out of state for work, but the last couple of times has convinced me that it’s no longer a real option.
Scummy contracts, poorly maintained rentals, and nonsense followups seem to be the standard, and it’s basically the same cost as a decent hotel room. I can’t see a reason today not to just use the hotel.
Sucks, because my initial experiences were really good, it only started to be awful after property management companies started buying cheap homes to use as airbnb rentals.
For business travel I’m not going to risk it. But for personal travel I’m still finding the vast majority of properties are well maintained and, for me anyway, multitudes more comfortable than a hotel room. Just the fact that i can stop at a store and buy a hundred dollars worth of groceries that will last me three days is worth it.
The number one issue I have with airbnb is that you are completely on your own to resolve issues with the host. And some hosts are scumbags.
Things just as simple as arriving become major pains. "Oh the key code isn't working, I'm sorry, I'll send the handyman to meet you, he's at dinner then he's 40 minutes away so he'll be there in two hours."
I'm on vacation, I want to show up when I show up. Hotels are nice because you can just check in when you get there.
After one key code box that wasn't working and another where they were clearly renting the airbnb in secret from their neighbors and had a bunch of rules like no carrying your luggage through the common areas (um, okay how are we supposed to bring our stuff in then?), I'm done with airbnb.
Hotels might not be as sexy but at least they functionally work.
My last airbnb ended up being in a part of town under heavy construction, in a townhouse that had a shared wall with people who clearly were not renters.
I got there jet lagged and tired, to discover there was no ac and the house had no fans. No ceiling fans, standing, anything. It was hot as shit.
When I finally got to sleep, the people I shared a wall with turned their music up real loud. I called to complain and nothing was done. They played that music all night.
After getting no sleep I dragged myself into work the next day exhausted and on a three hour time difference.
Airbnb is too much of a risk period. My Airbnb had fantastic reviews that did not reflect reality at all, and when I posted a negative review it was simply deleted.
Hotels indeed at least functionally work. Never again, airbnb.
My last airbnb was a beautiful four bedroom home on a secluded lakefront property in Maine. It was beautifully decorated, topped off with nice little amenities throughout the house. There were several canoes and kayaks available for use, plus all sorts of wakeboards and skis that we could use if we rented a boat. There were a number of swings and hammocks hung throughout the property and a large fire ring with birch cutoffs for seating. The hosts were very helpful the whole way and we had an amazing time.
I’ve had bad experiences too, including chargebacks and starting the process of suing a host for fraud, but I’m still rolling the dice.
I actually really like hostels, I always seem to meet someone interesting to chat with, but normally my best option seems to be a hotel.
You do get what you pay for though. A Motel 6 is going to be lousy in general but if you opt for something a little nicer you do tend to get a cleaner room and better service.
Isn't this basically the story of big startups in last 10 years?
- Upend an industry - either by evading existing regulations until you're too big to stop or with unsustainable pricing, availability, and/or quality of service by burning VC money. (or both)
- Try to become profitable.
- Find out why said industry had regulations/poor margins/bad service/limited availability when VC money runs out.
Examples are numerous, but top of mind for me are Movie Pass and WeWork because they were so obviously never going to be profitable. It's also weird that companies like this get labelled "tech companies".
People keep saying this but this has not been my experience anywhere. Where do you see this? What gets me a pretty nice little airbnb, private room with kitchen and bedroom and working space, only is going to get a sort of crummy hotel room that feels a little damp with kids yelling from the next room. I really don't understand the economics that leads hotel rooms to be so expensive.
I feel let down by many of the airbnbs we have visited lately. There is always some weird aspect that was never represented properly. I've always loved nice hotels tho. They've all been nicer than hostels tho.
Well I must say it’s quite a beautiful afternoon out here in the dystopian hellscape. Just got back from a run in fort mason and it was loaded with tourists.
Lol. I live in mission. Presently it's a paradise imo. Mission and 16th is a little crazy, but still I love this part of the city. I know Haight and Hayes to both be pretty lovely too when I visit friends. FiDi I'll admit is dead, but otherwise... "disaster"? I think you're exaggerating.
I'd argue the only two real things that have happened since COVID are that FiDi retail failed to recover and the Tenderloin expanded a bit further into lower Nob and SOMA. The rest is pretty much as I remember it in 2019.
Oh sorry, am I not allowed to spend my time in the areas of the city that I enjoy the most? You’re telling me I should go to where it’s a disaster… why would I listen to your advice?
mission is better in some ways and worse in others (lived there through covid). haight and hayes are both fine. fidi is definitely dead and soma is worse. mission/market around 6th-12th is worse than it was pre-covid
I go through HV on my way home in the late evenings four or five times a week. It is always packed with people and it’s genuinely hard to ride or drive through there with the insane number of Ubers and delivery drivers doing pickups who are double parked on both sides.
They give two sources of broader data, which you can take as you please:
> Freedman is the owner of HostWell, a company that helps manage properties for short-term rental hosts across the Bay Area. [ ... ] Freedman estimated that pricing for Airbnbs in San Francisco is down about 40% from last year, and occupancy has declined by roughly 20-25%.
> According to short-term rental data company AirDNA, nights stayed in vacation rentals in San Francisco in May 2023 were down 29% from May 2019.
Interestingly there was no mention of asking AirBnb themelves for the ground truth.
Those numbers could also be a consequence of more people trying to rent out AirBnBs right? That’s always the biggest issue trusting host-reported occupancy rates.
HostWell data talks about occupancy of individual units. That tells nothing about total number of bookings. Supply of AirBnb units has been increasing faster than demand. That's why occupancy is decreasing. It doesn't show decrease demand for AirBnb.
As far as AirDNA data I'm not sure whether they are talking about total nights stayed or something else. But I can certainly believe it's 30% below pre-pandemic levels. Chinese tourist flow hasn't recovered. That alone may account for most of the decrease vs 2019.
It’s not bad press. Bad press implies that the stories are untrue. But the stories are totally true.The city is untenable.
Drugs done openly in the streets, rampant crime getting bolder and bolder. The cops don’t do shit. And people aren’t allowed to defend themselves. You hear about the repeated armed robberies in noe valley? Mothers getting beaten and robbed for their phones. the cops had the perpetrators location and did jack shit. So what happened? they came back and did it again the next day. Same people, same block, same MO.
When you don’t intervene criminals just keep on doin crime.
So huh. People stop coming to SF. How could anyone have predicted this!? Don’t get me wrong, I don’t really blame the cops for going limp. Justice is a multi part process. Without the other parts in place, the sharp end of the stick is useless.
This is just AirBNB. According to the SF Travel Association, "tourism is down about 16% from 2019." That doesn't seem like that much of a drop for San Francisco. If it were closing in on 30% then that is bad.
It pains me to see stories about the "demise" of San Francisco. I lived above a bar in the Noe Valley and it was incredible. Now I would choose some place else to visit, things are unpredictable right now with crime and enforcement. My urban days are over, perhaps, but I would prefer something more stable and peaceful.
> I lived above a bar in the Noe Valley and it was incredible.
This is honestly the first time I've ever heard anyone say anything good about living above a bar other than the rent was cheap! Wasn't it loud? Smokers constantly outside your windows?
I was on the third floor and the bar was rarely an issue. It might get rowdy during the early evening hours but by 10 it was quiet and the owners did a good job keeping it that way. As for the smokers.. from what I remember they went out the back door of the bar so it wasn't an issue in front.
> What are your thoughts on the city's future? I've seen a lot of doomerish articles of late, many did seem to leave during Covid etc. however I still know many who happily look to buy property or relocate to the city right now. Do you believe the core innovation drive is in trouble, threatening it becoming a new Detroit? (Or even just the city itself, while the suburbs continue to boom and do well in the future as the city collapses - like Metrodetroit?)
A Detroit like apocalyptic scenario isn’t a certainty, but a possibility we should entertain.
A city with vibrant culture, extreme wealth, and great architecture? That was Detroit in the 50s. A sudden outflow of labor? That could be SF with remote work, AI, and a tech downturn
The “weather” and “geography” are bogus arguments. The entire state of California has great weather and geography. Nothing sets SF apart.
People claim that SF is a boom and bust town as if it’s some force of nature. It isn’t. Claiming that there will be another boom is wishful thinking.
It’d be interesting to know, aren’t the people who have vested interests such as owning propery in SF the same people claiming a new boom on the horizon?
Is SF on a downturn? Absolutely. The biggest change for me has been the mission, specifically right around the BART stations, those couple blocks have gotten out of hand.
Is it going to recover? Can't guarantee it, but the city has faced worse. It may not recover for a few years or a decade, but it will be back eventually. In the meantime, is it still worth visiting and living in? I think so, weather is great, nature and setting is great, still lots of weird and interesting things to do. Crime is up, and it is unfortunate that you can't leave anything visible in your car most places in the city, but it was like that before the pandemic also.
I think your observation of the suburbs doing well is astute. For my peers (mid-30s couples with dual incomes), COVID wasn't a time to leave the bay area, just a time to leave the SF rental market for the SF suburbs and buy a house. So many of my coworkers and former coworkers bought houses in 2020 and 2021 while interest rates were low. Almost no one bought in SF proper but lots of people within a 30min BART ride of the city and still go into the city on weekends or work hybrid model on weekdays. FIDI and SOMA east of 4th are still fine, albeit quieter.
I am not sure about the history of detroit but SF single family housing real-estate is doing just fine, there doesn't seem to be an exodus of people selling their houses if they actually have a house in SF. If anything high interest rates are actually keeping people from leaving SF. Also, generally the neighborhoods where there are single family homes (which is (un)fortunately most of the city), are pretty vibrant still. Except for maybe the mission.
It seems like the biggest exodus from SF was the younger rental market, single people in their 20s. The crowds feel a bit older than they used to, but then again that could just be my circles.
So generally I am a long term believer in the City. But it will probably get worse before it gets better.
Well… from my point of view as someone that got out after my car was twice broken into and the back door handle to my house was removed with a hammer…
ZIRP is on pause for the foreseeable future. SF industry has basically relied on this. AirBnB included of course.
Crime, homeless, drugs, businesses pulling out
in SF is undeniably worse every year. You don’t need to agree it’s as good or bad as anyone else, but reasonable people have to see it is indeed a downward trend.
As to Detroit… MetroSF isn’t farmland. And having lived in both, there is a lot more hard industry in Detroit now than will ever be in SF. IDK.
I can not possibly imagine moving back there now with remote work.
I’ve heard only bad from people who grew up there and have been back to visit family over the years. Obviously just anecdotal but I think that’s how this sort of info spreads.
I live in the Bay and follow this news closely, particularly the narratives as they are formed and whom they are constructed to serve.
There was a lot of vitriol directed at Chesa Boudin using questionably skewed interpretations of city statistics. The consensus among those in the know is that it was largely motivated by commercial real estate and other reactionary interests reacting to the perceived influences of his advocacy (note that DAs don't enjoy the privilege of "policies" despite what the loudmouths would have you believe) on real estate prices, when in reality we were living through a pandemic that kept people at home on Zoom and made tech offices largely redundant.
Many retail giants also pulled out of SF because foot traffic was way down and profits dwindled (again an effect primarily of the pandemic), but the way it was framed in the news was as purely-anecdotal (i.e. no hard data provided because none is collected) anonymously-sourced claims about "shoplifting epidemics".
Those with too much time on their hands -- especially techies who enjoy the free time during their workdays to rile themselves up doomscrolling local news websites -- ranted about it on Twitter and, if especially incensed, at their councilmembers, and the shadowy big money local behemoths rode that wave of narrative and perception to wage war on progressive efforts all across the city.
No one I know who left SF and comes back to visit say anything like what you suggest, but then again they've always repped SF and left for reasons that were in conflict with their evergreen love of the city and what it stands for in our cultural consciousness.
I had to leave during COVID due to a layoff in 2020. I still defend SF (and California) because all of what you said. It makes it impossible to work on the ground to make any changes. I remember a particular NIMBY resistance against a safe use site in 2019 that brought out a number of them with all the shadowy work you describe. It's so frustrating.
Funny to see the lengths some people will go to spin the news their way. It's just a flesh wound! I've had much worse.
"questionably skewed interpretations of city statistics" -- LOL. Who you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?
"It was all the pandemic!" Right, right. LOL again.
Boudin lost by 60-40. Face it: it wasn't propaganda from big money; people just hated him. The DA does, indeed, have the "privilege" of deciding who to charge; what bail to demand, if any; and what plea deals to make; and that's why George Soros poured so much money into DA races all over the country. If the DAs were just automatons no one would bother.
You can add me to that list. I lived in SF from 2006-2011, when I left for NYC. I went back in 2022 for the first time in a decade, fearful that the city I loved had been ruined. I spent twelve hours one day walking the city, and I was pleased to see that she’s still there, and it’s not as bad as the internet said. I did the edge of the tenderloin, but didn’t venture in, and I can see that there are some real problems that need to be addressed, but it’s not a hellscape just yet.
It's not just bad press--the city is fundamentally mismanaged and not safe. Car break ins are shockingly common and not at all addressed by SFPD. You can get violently robbed in public and no one is going to intervene.
In other cities it mostly happens in the 'bad' parts of town so it's easier to avoid. In SF, it happens frequently at the most visited tourist spots and most expensive housing areas--Alamo Square, Twin Peaks, Fisherman's Wharf, North Beach, Marina are all now targets because criminals know that's where the highest concentrations of wealth are and there are no consequences.
All that's very well to report but a one month 2 br Airbnb in SF is going to cost you some $6k if you aren't lucky enough to get a Blueground on the cheap. Just look right now. It's been that way for months.
Here's an article from Australia talking about how Airbnb bookings are down in our tourist destinations: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-19/airbnb-hosts-revert-b...