While I agree that it is too early to turn to a conspiracy theory, the supposed rationale against JPEG XL is also pretty unsubstantiated and it does feel that the Chrome team doesn't want to share the actual rationale for whatever reason.
Google's rationale is very weak, yes. But it makes no sense to say that this is the AOM pushing Google to do this as a proof of loyalty. Why wouldn't the same apply to Apple and Mozilla? In fact, if deprecating JPEG-XL is something the AOM wants, wouldn't you expect the browser vendors (all of whom are AOM founders) to all conspire to kill JPEG-XL? The right conspiracy theory here isn't even that AOM is forcing Google to do this as a proof of loyalty, the conspiracy theory which at least makes some semblance of sense is that Apple, Google and Mozilla are working to kill JPEG-XL to help their own image format win. But then it's just a group of companies acting in their own self interest and not some coercion, so I suppose that story isn't as sexy.
