I was initially a skeptic of widespread adoption of VR. I'm not sure that it's going to be the next smartphone. However, if it gets more comfortable and the price point goes down, I could see it being a replacement for traditional desktop monitors. Instead of paying $1k for a 27-inch display you get as many large screens as you want. That seems probable to me.
I know that sounds awfully boring and mundane, but that probably comes way before other applications. After all the original iPhone was just an iPod you could make calls with.
>If it gets more comfortable and the price point goes down I could see it being a replacement for traditional desktop monitors
This is - quite literally - decades away in terms of panel production and graphics tech. Just like you should not found (or pivot to!) American Airlines in 1919, you should not bet the house on virtual reality in 2022.
envelope calculations
- You need two low heat/low power OLED 8k monitors (or more? Currrent state of the art is 1600x1440 per eye - and it's nowhere near enough to read text) And the current headsets are heavy, with thick fresnel lenses and produce enough heat to make them unusable with an ambient temp above ~23C
- You need a mobile graphics chip better than a 4090 - wayyy better. A 4090 can render a 4k virtual world (more than 4x easier than what I suggested above!) but it requires 450W to do so. So you need >4x the performance with less than a 20th to 50th the power budget).
- And finally, at a price point of $1k. Actually this is probably the easiest part, once any of the above exists, should only take a few more years of scale and sale.
This is if you want to replace the performance of a 100ish DPI 27" monitor. I believe a 2560x1440 is about ~110 DPI, which is very usable and pleasant, but much worse than the 220DPI of a Mac "retina" device (hence why I'm considering 8k per eye, honestly)
Either way, the technology to make small enough OLED panel is close, but not there. Samsung could do it, given how large they've made their AMOLED phones, but it's still a big jump.
The graphics technology to drive that is sooo far away it's not even a twinkle in ASML's eye. Here's your limiting factor.
And then you have to package them together cheaply.
A 35 inch curved widescreen can be had for 300ish.
When I work, I need to see my surroundings. See the kid, see out the window for weather, visitors, deliveries. Make sure the dog isn't into anything. Say hi to the family when they're in/out. There's no way in hell I'm strapping on a digital blindfold.
Also, how do video calls even work? We all look like borgs? Don't tell me we're all gonna have floating cartoon avatars...
My point was it would likely look more like existing software today than the cartoonish, futuristic vision of Facebook's metaverse. My guess is a bunch of flat panels much like our computer screens with a web browser, or VS Code or Excel.
The other comment here makes good points about the tech needed to power such devices though. Unless there's some sort of breakthrough maybe VR will remain for gaming and other niche applications.
I know that sounds awfully boring and mundane, but that probably comes way before other applications. After all the original iPhone was just an iPod you could make calls with.