Those 12k are probably not even all in R&D/tech side.
Even if 12k are out in the market, there's still a massive shortage for software developers and even though we are training an insane amount of new ones per year the vacant spots are still growing.
Software has eaten the world, there's no industry today that don't depend on software to increase efficiency. There are more and more devices requiring software, in all levels of products from infrastructure to consumer goods.
I really don't understand where do you think we have enough developers so that even "average" developers would suffer. They have experience, they will end up where other "rockstars" (side-note: I absolutely hate this terminology) have left for greener pastures.
I think you should really look at the landscape before writing such a haphazard take, or at least bring some sources on why you think that this will affect in any way the job prospects of new developers for the next 5 years. There's absolutely nothing to sustain your argument more than "I think this".
Even if 12k are out in the market, there's still a massive shortage for software developers and even though we are training an insane amount of new ones per year the vacant spots are still growing.
Software has eaten the world, there's no industry today that don't depend on software to increase efficiency. There are more and more devices requiring software, in all levels of products from infrastructure to consumer goods.
I really don't understand where do you think we have enough developers so that even "average" developers would suffer. They have experience, they will end up where other "rockstars" (side-note: I absolutely hate this terminology) have left for greener pastures.
I think you should really look at the landscape before writing such a haphazard take, or at least bring some sources on why you think that this will affect in any way the job prospects of new developers for the next 5 years. There's absolutely nothing to sustain your argument more than "I think this".