There’s alot of stuff stuck in the shipping channel or backlogged.
Not the same commodity, but as an illustration, I just got a bunch of 4k computer displays direct from an OEM. Normally we get stuff like this 30-60 days after manufacturing. These devices were tagged as last July and received a week ago.
I’ve been told that lots of stuff gets stuck waiting for final package assembly. (Ie the monitor stand, cable or even manual) Although chips aren’t end user products that have to have accessories, many require packaging or other subcomponents that may be lost in the mail.
Additionally, contracts prioritize certain customers, and many manufacturers don’t have good processes to deal with diversions. If you order 20,000 widgets, they may not stop shipping until to hit some high water mark. So when the US government say “emergency, ship me your widgets now”, your order gets “stolen”.
COVID response activity is winding down, so I’d venture to guess you’re going to see a lot of cancelled orders and chaos. Imo, you’ll see prices of consumer facing IT gear crash in the June-August timeframe as schools and students are flooded with gear, only to surge again as component makers retool.
Also, like gas prices (quick to rise, slow to sink), I think you’ll see manufacturers keep prices high in the many markets that are controlled by little cartels. Why sell Ford some chip for $1 when they are paying $12 today?
> Why sell Ford some chip for $1 when they are paying $12 today?
That's a very good point. When you're competing to get your part selected for a new design, you want to sell it cheap, but once they've done all the work of incorporating your part and testing it, you want to make it expensive. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Yes they do. First, they normally buy complete electronics (functional devices with or without software), not just chips. Second, they do have strong contracts, spreading for 3, 4, 5+ years, specifying the volumes for each contracted year and also the piece price (among other details, of course).
To add to the logistical supply chain issues, the fleet of Anotov aircraft (including the AN-125 and AN-225) play a crucial role in the fulfilling a range global logistical needs, but the factory in Ukraine is reportedly damaged, leading to expected impacts to their serviceability and spare parts manufacture.
This will almost certainly have flow-on impacts to the broader shipping and commercial airline market, and further screw up delivery of your monitor’s user manuals.
Not the same commodity, but as an illustration, I just got a bunch of 4k computer displays direct from an OEM. Normally we get stuff like this 30-60 days after manufacturing. These devices were tagged as last July and received a week ago.
I’ve been told that lots of stuff gets stuck waiting for final package assembly. (Ie the monitor stand, cable or even manual) Although chips aren’t end user products that have to have accessories, many require packaging or other subcomponents that may be lost in the mail.
Additionally, contracts prioritize certain customers, and many manufacturers don’t have good processes to deal with diversions. If you order 20,000 widgets, they may not stop shipping until to hit some high water mark. So when the US government say “emergency, ship me your widgets now”, your order gets “stolen”.
COVID response activity is winding down, so I’d venture to guess you’re going to see a lot of cancelled orders and chaos. Imo, you’ll see prices of consumer facing IT gear crash in the June-August timeframe as schools and students are flooded with gear, only to surge again as component makers retool.
Also, like gas prices (quick to rise, slow to sink), I think you’ll see manufacturers keep prices high in the many markets that are controlled by little cartels. Why sell Ford some chip for $1 when they are paying $12 today?