This is like saying "the market will crash". Anyone can predict that eventually the AWS value proposition will turn sour. What's valuable (and hard) is to predict _when_ this will happen.

Big, expensive, boondoggly, stranglehold on legacy workloads, friends with your C-suite, and engineers and ICs hate it?

What is the opposite?

Cloudflare, HashiCorp, Fly.io, Oxide Computer, Vercel

Render.com too

And DigitalOcean now supports deploying Docker containers, so there is no reason not to migrate to it.

> so there is no reason not to migrate to it.

Sure, "no reason" if literally the only problem you have to solve is deploying docker containers. While I'm not taking anything away from DO -- it's actually not a bad alternative for people who don't want nor need the complexity of enterprise cloud solutions -- it's still a huuuge exaggeration to say "no reason" when Docker containers is just a drop in the ocean (pun intended) of the scale of problems that AWS (attempts to) solve.

Heroku runs on AWS, doesn’t it?

Heroku:

* Big NO

* expensive YES

* boondoggly NO

* stranglehold on legacy workloads NOT SURE

* friends with your C-suite NO

* engineers and ICs hate it NO

It hits many of the pain points, not all.

Heroku is non-leaky in it's use of AWS. If they switch to something else under the hood you wouldn't know and wont need to change code. The only leaky part is the pricing of someone who is buying wholesale and selling retail.