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People tend to overestimate their own abilities and performance.

Especially when they're operating in an impaired state: drugs, alcohol, fatigue, or cult-like communities (which often combine all of the above and then some).

This is very well established in literature particularly regarding management and business:

http://forum.johnson.cornell.edu/faculty/russo/Managing%20Ov... http://www.capitalideasonline.com/articles/index.php?id=2360 See also: Blindspots analysis: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blindspots_analysis



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