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Seems like everyone suffers from recency bias - "what has been happening for the past few months is how it will be in the future".

I remember when gas prices peaked back around 2006 everyone said "gas prices will never come down, peak oil, blah, blah". 6 months later gas prices crashed by 75%.

Keep that in mind when people talk about housing prices or the stock market. "It's different this time" is rarely true.



Gasoline is a little different because 2006 was the tail end of the Peak Oil era. There was a real fear that production of gasoline was going to peak around that time and never recover.

Imagine being criticized in 2035 for believing in 2020 that climate change was going to permanently change the world.

So that is a fear that I wouldn't call baseless. I don't think lay people expected the kind of technical innovation that happened in the petroleum industry in the past 15 years.




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