That negative press means nothing anymore. They haven't just fixed it, they've come around spectacularly and destroyed their competitors. From now on this is a story about what could happen if you go with a service that doesn't have Airbnb's $50,000 Guarantee.
For one, the fix will not get nearly as much coverage as the initial problem. Many people will not hear about it and will be left with a negative impression of the company.
Second, for those carefully following the story, I think it's clear that they've handled this very badly up until now. Maybe I'm being unfair, but I award only partial credit for doing the right thing only when your back's against the wall.
The Guarantee would have been spectacularly more powerful had they announced it before the story got picked up by CNN and USA Today. I think it's silly to argue otherwise.
Finally -- and this is just my personal opinion -- I think even with the new insurance policy it's a net loss for Airbnb. This episode has highlighted just how bad the worst case is for someone using the service. The personal value of my home and safety is considerably higher than it's appraised dollar value. Bottom line, I am less likely to use Airbnb today than I was last month.
I pretty much agree with your first three points. As to the last, though, I think it's pointed out a problem with the industry. Airbnb has separated themselves with a huge reason to go with them over craigslist, and that market is not going to go away.
I agree with you, but it's not a zero sum game. Airbnb (and its competitors) are counting on people who wouldn't previously have participated in short term P2P rentals. Hotels and hostels are at least as much their competition as is craigslist.
The problem is that a lot of people have read the negative story, and a smaller number of people have read the positive ending, simply because it's less interesting.
