Sorry for the off-topic rant, but is it only me or are people, who start with "I'll probably get downvoted, but ...", never actually downvoted? Maybe it's some kind of reverse psychology, like parents who tell their children the opposite of what they actually want them to do. Or maybe the downvoting behavior on HN is actually better then people think and different options are actually valued.
I've noticed that when people start their comments with "sorry for X," or "is it only me . . ." they tend to get upvoted. This could be another instance of the same reverse psychology you posit.
Some people (I'm one) make a point of always downvoting people who say "I know I'll get downvoted for this, but ...". (I'll make an exception if what they write is so good I'd have upvoted it; in that case I'll just not upvote it.) The less useful that sort of sympathy-fishing is, the better HN will be.
Similarly, I will often downvote comments that complain about being downvoted, either as a reply or an edit. I find whining about votes detracts from the discussion and has no place here and therefore is worth a downvote. People need to become less concerned about their scores - if people find a comment is valuable, it will be upvoted. If not, it may be downvoted and complaining about being downvoted makes it less valuable, not more.
Of course, by my own logic, this comment should also be downvoted purely because it is a meta comment, is off-topic and detracts from the actual discussion. Hell, if I could, I'd do it myself ;-)
I'm curious if you considered that the reason people preamble their posts with this is because they have gotten multiple downvotes in the past for something they said which was reasonable? My understanding is that downvotes should not be cast for dissenting opinions or unpopular but logical statements. However, my experience with the site is that this happens from time to time. Thankfully, there is sufficient traffic so that the situation often (but not always) rectifies it self .. i.e. people tend to upvote good comments. I'm relatively new to the site so am still trying to figure it out.
To this end, I feel the cap of -10 on downvotes was a great idea. It lets someone post an unpopular (but hopefully logically sound) argument with the knowledge that they will lose a capped amount of karma.
"I know I'll get downvoted" is also sometimes code for "this post is so awesome you probably won't understand it, but go ahead and downvote because I don't care about little minded people like you."
It certainly can happen that something reasonable gets a lot of downvotes. But not nearly as often as it happens that something unreasonable (or stupid or irrelevant or otherwise unhelpful) gets a lot of downvotes even though its author thinks it's a useful contribution.
I think "I know I'll get downvoted ..." usually just indicates (not a long tragic history of getting downvoted for insightful comments, but) roughly what it says: the author expects to get downvotes -- and probably hopes to get fewer by saying s/he expects them. HN is better off without those preambles because (1) they're a waste of space -- learning that the author of something expected downvotes tells you nothing useful -- and (2) they distort the scoring system, which (for all its flaws) does help to order comments well and identify ones that aren't going to be worth reading.
Also, the only reason the author would expect their comment to be downvoted is because 1) its insightful, but unpopular and 2) because the author knows right well that the post adds little value, is off-topic or detracts from the conversation.
If its #1, then you must clearly state your argument. A well thought out, but unpopular, opinion normally doesn't get as many downvotes as a not so well thought out opinion.
If its #2, then maybe the author should simply refrain from posting.
> To this end, I feel the cap of -10 on downvotes was a great idea.
Is there really such a cap? Back when comment scores were displayed, there was a minimum display score, but actual score could go far below it, with no apparent minimum. Such a cap would be/is a very good idea, of course.
