There is a glut for crappy mask. Decent ones are still not quite in balance.
>because of a failure of forecasting
It depends on which side of forecasting, was it demand or supply? It is always easy for outsider to say they should have built 10 Fabs 4 years ago and they would have been riding the tide. But even older ones are still CapEx intensive and relatively long ROI. Which means from a business prospective it is better safe than sorry.
And that is especially true with TSMC who are extremely conservative.
There was another comment about Auto Maker should built their own Fab. I really dont see how this would make any sense. All Auto Maker has to do to guarantee supply was to sign a long term agreement with TSMC, or even ask TSMC to built dedicated Fabs for them. But not a single client ( apart from Apple ) was willing to bet. No one was willing to bet their game for 3-4 years in advance. There is also the conservative nature of traditional business in demand side. If they sign it now at a cost that is 40% higher than their previous median, will they end up like Airliners hedging on Oil Price and ultimately cost them the billions.
So it really is the problem from both side.
And the same is true in ALL other market. Anyone who has ever worked in buy and sell, supply chain should see how similar the conversations are.
>because of a failure of forecasting
It depends on which side of forecasting, was it demand or supply? It is always easy for outsider to say they should have built 10 Fabs 4 years ago and they would have been riding the tide. But even older ones are still CapEx intensive and relatively long ROI. Which means from a business prospective it is better safe than sorry.
And that is especially true with TSMC who are extremely conservative.
There was another comment about Auto Maker should built their own Fab. I really dont see how this would make any sense. All Auto Maker has to do to guarantee supply was to sign a long term agreement with TSMC, or even ask TSMC to built dedicated Fabs for them. But not a single client ( apart from Apple ) was willing to bet. No one was willing to bet their game for 3-4 years in advance. There is also the conservative nature of traditional business in demand side. If they sign it now at a cost that is 40% higher than their previous median, will they end up like Airliners hedging on Oil Price and ultimately cost them the billions.
So it really is the problem from both side.
And the same is true in ALL other market. Anyone who has ever worked in buy and sell, supply chain should see how similar the conversations are.