You're right that it's a useful starting point, but I think that it's even more complicated than "single payer is better".
First of all, it isn't obvious that single payer is the best system, because there are many countries in the world that have exemplary health care systems that are not "single payer". You cited Germany as an example, but Germany doesn't have a single payer system, it has a public-private mix. It's a universal multi-payer system. Netherlands has a purely private universal healthcare system, Switzerland has a purely private universal healthcare system, Australia has a public-private mix (44% choose private), Singapore has universal catastrophic coverage but everything else is driven by savings accounts and private insurance among the upper-middle class, etc etc — Belgium, South Korea (technically "single payer" but only covers 60% of costs, private insurance fills in the gaps), Japan, etc.
From where I sit, the most apples-to-apples A/B test of single-public-payer vs private insurance is actually being run in the US, as we speak. When you turn 65, you have the option to enroll either in "Original Medicare", which is what we usually think of when we talk about "single payer healthcare in America", or you can enroll in Medicare Advantage (aka Medicare "Part C"), where the premiums that would go to the CMS instead go to private insurers like Humana, United, Oscar Health, Aetna, Clover, etc. These plans replace Original Medicare, also cover Part D prescription drug benefits, and often include supplemental benefits that Original Medicare doesn't already cover. There are some interesting findings so far:
- 39% of Medicare beneficiaries are on private Medicare Advantage plans instead of the public "Original Medicare". Because everyone is entitled to "Original Medicare", this is purely voluntary. This number has been growing so rapidly, that we expect by 2025, more seniors to be on a private plan than the public one. There's also great variance by State. In Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Alabama, Hawaii, and Connecticut — nearly 50% of beneficiaries are on Medicare Advantage. By 2022, we expect more seniors in those States to be on a private plan than a public one. https://www.kff.org/medicare/issue-brief/a-dozen-facts-about...
- In Urban areas, Medicare Advantage costs less per capita to administer than Medicare — and that's not including the extra Medicare Part D insurance that you would have to buy if you're on the Original Medicare plan. https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2... From this same research, public "Original Medicare" is still cheaper in rural areas, but not by a whole lot.
So to make things more complicated, we're not just talking about whether "Medicare For All" is better than the status quo, we also need to litigate if private-insurance driven "Medicare Advantage For All", is even better.
First of all, it isn't obvious that single payer is the best system, because there are many countries in the world that have exemplary health care systems that are not "single payer". You cited Germany as an example, but Germany doesn't have a single payer system, it has a public-private mix. It's a universal multi-payer system. Netherlands has a purely private universal healthcare system, Switzerland has a purely private universal healthcare system, Australia has a public-private mix (44% choose private), Singapore has universal catastrophic coverage but everything else is driven by savings accounts and private insurance among the upper-middle class, etc etc — Belgium, South Korea (technically "single payer" but only covers 60% of costs, private insurance fills in the gaps), Japan, etc.
From where I sit, the most apples-to-apples A/B test of single-public-payer vs private insurance is actually being run in the US, as we speak. When you turn 65, you have the option to enroll either in "Original Medicare", which is what we usually think of when we talk about "single payer healthcare in America", or you can enroll in Medicare Advantage (aka Medicare "Part C"), where the premiums that would go to the CMS instead go to private insurers like Humana, United, Oscar Health, Aetna, Clover, etc. These plans replace Original Medicare, also cover Part D prescription drug benefits, and often include supplemental benefits that Original Medicare doesn't already cover. There are some interesting findings so far:
- 39% of Medicare beneficiaries are on private Medicare Advantage plans instead of the public "Original Medicare". Because everyone is entitled to "Original Medicare", this is purely voluntary. This number has been growing so rapidly, that we expect by 2025, more seniors to be on a private plan than the public one. There's also great variance by State. In Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Alabama, Hawaii, and Connecticut — nearly 50% of beneficiaries are on Medicare Advantage. By 2022, we expect more seniors in those States to be on a private plan than a public one. https://www.kff.org/medicare/issue-brief/a-dozen-facts-about...
- For most beneficiaries, Medicare Advantage costs about 39% less than Original Medicare. https://healthpayerintelligence.com/news/medicare-advantage-...
- Medicare Advantage plans are, on average, of higher quality than the public "Original Medicare" https://healthpayerintelligence.com/news/medicare-advantage-...
- In Urban areas, Medicare Advantage costs less per capita to administer than Medicare — and that's not including the extra Medicare Part D insurance that you would have to buy if you're on the Original Medicare plan. https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2... From this same research, public "Original Medicare" is still cheaper in rural areas, but not by a whole lot.
So to make things more complicated, we're not just talking about whether "Medicare For All" is better than the status quo, we also need to litigate if private-insurance driven "Medicare Advantage For All", is even better.