H1B are limited and this doesn't let you skip any lines so doubt it will have much of an effect on net immigration. Other than the very few (well maybe it's common, no idea) people who might get married or qualify for an O-1 and some other more esoteric categories as a student
Now I do agree that it might discourage some high quality people from going that route, but that's another story.
It’s not about skipping lines. A tech master’s degree allows you to get a job prior to them applying for a h1b via the OPT program. Without that most companies that don’t have overseas offices won’t hire you if you are from countries like India or China.
I think these days a masters in CS or a related field allows you up to 3 years of OPT. I.e multiple chances to apply for a H1B visa while working legally in the USA.
For more context: Currently theirs about 1 million f1 students in the USA and about ~500k h1b holders. Roughly 223k applied and got OPT in 2019. More figures can be found here:
Right, but correct me if I'm wrong, your H1B will still be subject to the same H1B limit. And given there are many more people applying than the limit allows for how could it result in less net immigration via H1B?
Correct. However many companies will hire someone on a OPT and then apply for a H1B. If you don’t have OPT they probably won’t go through the hassle of sponsoring you for a visa if they want you in a US office.
3 years of OPT gives a companies lawyers plenty of chances to apply, get rejected and then reapply. This is the case with my company right now. I.e the first step in our hiring processes is asking if you are authorized to work in the USA? A no answer equals likely rejection.
OPT increases the probability that you will be able to get a h1b.
If you reduce the number of students you narrow the funnel.
As an individual your chances are no doubt increased. But at a 65,000 + 20,000 H1B quota that is oversubscribed about 1 to 3 it's hard to imagine a situation where it somehow doesn't get exhausted.
Over 2/3 of H1B applicants would have to be OPT extension recipients AND you'd have to assume there is no hidden demand that would resurface given a drop in applicants.
Well via different categories by happenstance perhaps, which is why I mentioned marriage. But then again people on tourist visas do that too, probably in bigger numbers. And tourists from most places can't visit right now either.
Most pathways to immigrate to America are either capped, backlogged or hard enough that there isn't a ton of people using them.
If this was a strategic move by the WH rather than just ICE interpreting rules, I'd be much more willing to believe this is an action targeted at China given how many foreign students are Chinese. Or as someone else noted, a way to pressure schools to open up.
Now I do agree that it might discourage some high quality people from going that route, but that's another story.