Every morning M-F, TSA publishes daily traveler numbers for the previous day(s):

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

It’s a good snapshot of the state of air travel in the US. Yesterday’s volume was 22% of the same date a year earlier (July 14, 2019) and I expect volume may fall below 20% next week as the virus surge causes marginal travel plans to be cancelled.

The low point in absolute travelers was April 14 when 87k people flew, less than 4% (!) of the previous year’s 2.2 million.

not going to lie... I was still shocked at how quickly the numbers went up starting June.

> These letters indicate that potential layoffs or furloughs are possible in the near future as air travel demand continues to suffer due to COVID-19.

it's a warning of a furlough, not an actual furlough.

Unless COVID magically goes away(tm) by October 1st and travel rebounds to where it was before, which is looking exceedingly unlikely, the furloughs will happen as soon as the payroll subsidies end.

I remember reading about people upset that the Airline executives were going to continue making their millions when getting government assistance. I was upset that the unionized airline pilots making $400k/year weren’t going to be asked for any concession. Surely it’s better for the industry to drive down wages during this downturn than just furlough.

Is there a scenario in which all the major airlines collapse?

Bankruptcy is certainly possible, but those are something of a fact of life for the airline industry.

i think the major airlines all exist under the "too big to fail" umbrella, and will be bailed out by the goverment in some fashion before they actually collapse.

however, as long as they can cut expenses by laying off staff with no consequences, they're probably safe. previous tough times for airlines haven't been in quite the same situation where they can just cut expenses by cutting flights. i'd be more worried about the airports than the airlines - at some point, they're going to have a big backlog of fixed non-staff expenses that are no longer being covered by ramp fees.

We're not that lucky.

IIRC American has some serious debt issues but Delta and United are sufficiently solvent that they'd get bailed out.

Nope. See also: Amtrak.

On the contrary, Amtrak represents the exact scenario that OP was asking about. It was created following the complete collapse of all the major passenger railroads.

I think the point was "there'll always be passenger service", not "the current companies will survive unscathed".

The worst case is they could all merge into "Amwings" and those who choose to AGTOW would go bankrupt. I doubt it. Consolidation down to fewer major carriers per country would happen first because it's not like HYPErloop is going to put airlines or air cargo out of biz anytime soon.

Can someone educate me what exactly is the difference between furlough and layoff?

A layoff is permanent, and even if the position is reinstated, you have no claim to get your old job back.

A furlough is meant to be temporary and some benefits may contain to be paid out. If the company starts bringing people back in, those on furlough will be rehired first if still available.

That said, if the company doesn't recover fast enough or goes under entirely, there's no difference in practice.

A furlough is a temporary layoff

Main difference is a furlough means your job might come back, and usually you keep benefits like insurance.

Furlough also allows access to unemployment benefits, since you're still not getting paid

furlough = leave without pay, often company continues paying for benefits. Sometimes for indefinite period of time.

lay-off = terminating employment relationship.

as I understand it the big thing is retaining benefits - not that it matters if you can't pay rent. But given the US healthcare system, getting any ailment without coverage is more or less guaranteed to bankrupt you, so furlough is better than nothing I guess?

Seems like some employees getting furlough can keep some benefits such as health insurance?