Yeah, but if it boosts your income by $50k, you’ll pay it back in 3. If you’re 37 now, and it’s paid off by 40, you’ll then have 25 or more years of $50k more a year. Let’s say you put that in a mattress, and so have an extra 1.25 million at retirement. You can then withdraw it at 4% a year for the 30 years after that. It’s an income boost of $50k/year through retirement.
Now, of course, you can put it somewhere better than a mattress—but also of course, you don’t expect a $50k/year raise from a college education. Which educations might give that? Top tech schools. Pharmacy. Not much else.
7 years to pay it off, 44 years old by the time they are done, you have to account for the 4 years in college.
Also, 150k is almost certainly an underestimate unless that's only tuition. If we assume 150k tuition (over 4 years) and that they currently make 50k per year that's 350k their out for getting educated. So 4 years education + 7 years earning it back would be 11 years, they're now 48 by the time they broke even, before considering interest.
That math still sort of works out, but it's far from a slam dunk. They're accepting a fair bit of risk. What if they study x and by the time they are out the job market has changed and their is no demand for x? What if they run into financial issues while in school and need to drop out? Etc.
$150k seems high, especially if you’re making any effort to choose your school based on price. Where I went it currently costs in the $10-15k/year range for tuition, lab fees, books, etc for state residents. You could further drive the price down by doing some of it at a community college and utilizing financial aid. The opportunity cost of leaving a $50k/year job far outweighs the price of tuition.
That's a BIG "if". The thought of paying $50k a year for three years sounds like a really efficient way to do it! In my experience, that's just not how life works. It's a happy thought, however.
Now, of course, you can put it somewhere better than a mattress—but also of course, you don’t expect a $50k/year raise from a college education. Which educations might give that? Top tech schools. Pharmacy. Not much else.