I can't speak for the person you are replying to, but I already decided, so I don't need to show evidence for anything. I feel so much less guilty about all the time I waste here having total confidence that tier 1 state actors are in fact using their very best operatives and technology (not the low end crap they use to fool the rubes on Facebook, Youtube, and editors of newspapers of record) to wage a highly sophisticated influence operation against us. Surely if they could only succeed in brainwashing us, the users of HN, to go along with their dastardly plans the entire free world will collapse and world domination will be theirs.
So yeah whatever, say it's not happening, based on all the evidence that having complete access to the site gives you. I don't believe you. I just know, deep down, based on my limited unprivileged access and my casual analysis of a small part of the content, that anyone who disagrees with my fundamental beliefs on here is a total shill.
I'm reading that as satire (edit: though your last line was so uncannily realistic I really had to triple-check). To reply seriously to one bit: I'm not saying it isn't happening. I'm just asking the people who are sure it's happening, how they know. Either they have a way of deciding this that actually works, in which case we need to know what it is, so we can use it—or they don't, in which case the answers are interesting for other reasons.
I don't believe it's happening here unless we want to count the Rust Evangelism Strike Force. If it were then you would have noticed or people doing analysis on the public data would have posted reports of accounts involved and how their activity is coordinated. Look at all the posts over the years breaking down what gets to the front page and who posts it. It's not as if there aren't users who are actually paying attention. Actual campaigns have been active on Facebook, Twitter and Reddit, and indeed there are reports making specific and detailed accusations beyond "I don't like your comment history".
Joking aside, I believe that the minimum standard for a "influence operation" is where "operators" use a greater number of sock puppet accounts in a centrally coordinated manner to dominate the discussion forum. There has to be deception: pretending to be multiple people.
If I ever see activity that appears to meet that standard I'll report my evidence of it to the admins, trust they will take appropriate action if necessary, and continue to assume everyone who doesn't agree with me is a reasonable person acting in good faith.
Could you quantify some of your assertions, so I can better understand your perspective? I'm not looking for sources and serious analysis, but just looking for more precise numbers. What % of posts do you think are manipulated? How much worse has that number gotten over time?
I think state actors would be best served by making bots to upvote comments that serve their needs rather than directly commenting their position.
Ballpark, I'd estimate 1% of comments on sensitive topics, but 20% of votes on these topics are done with purpose of intentionally misleading the public.
It was satire, I was only kidding. As of this time I believe about 0% of posts here are manipulated. It's not to say we're not all exposed to propaganda and spin all the time, just that HN is not a forum that makes sense to target - it's too small.
So yeah whatever, say it's not happening, based on all the evidence that having complete access to the site gives you. I don't believe you. I just know, deep down, based on my limited unprivileged access and my casual analysis of a small part of the content, that anyone who disagrees with my fundamental beliefs on here is a total shill.
And you know what? It's getting worse lately.