Huh? How do you "overfit" on the test set if you don't have the test set? And also to call a good ML result a "coin toss" shows a profound lack of understanding of what goes into such "coin tosses", and why solving practical problems with ML is an entirely different ballgame than training a classifier on imagenet (which is in itself pretty hard if you want SOTA results).
I guess I'm extraordinarily "lucky" then. I don't participate in competitions, but I'm often "luckier" than entire teams of people working tirelessly for months. And I charge a lot of money for it.
I'm intentionally misunderstanding your comment now for academic reasons: it's great that you recognise the role of survival bias and luck in becoming successful at many things.
Besides that, I'm very curious about who you are and what you do. Willing to reveal more?