I totally get downside, but it's somewhat limited if FB is making $500m on $2b in 2010, and 100%+ growth in ann revenue, along with likely biz model improvements & increase in per-user economics.
reasonable floor is prob $20-30B, whereas upside could be $100-250b if growth & profits hold up.
downside at .5x vs upside at 2-5x seems like a reasonable bet to me.
DHH seems to ignore most of these metrics, except for saying that 100 P/E ratio is high. however that doesn't really acknowledge growth or biz model changes that will bring down P/E ratio over next few years.
to say it's high is perhaps reasonable. but to ignore that they are dominant, that multiple market participants have set a value (not just GS), and finally to call Rushkoff's recent article about Facebook "fading" a "thoughtful"... all of these strike me as more biased than not.
of course my opinions are biased as well -- I've worked with Facebook running their incubator program in 2009, and I used to work for Founders Fund, one of their early investors.
anyway I thought it was fun back & forth, given the limitations of the medium.
reasonable floor is prob $20-30B, whereas upside could be $100-250b if growth & profits hold up.
downside at .5x vs upside at 2-5x seems like a reasonable bet to me.
DHH seems to ignore most of these metrics, except for saying that 100 P/E ratio is high. however that doesn't really acknowledge growth or biz model changes that will bring down P/E ratio over next few years.
to say it's high is perhaps reasonable. but to ignore that they are dominant, that multiple market participants have set a value (not just GS), and finally to call Rushkoff's recent article about Facebook "fading" a "thoughtful"... all of these strike me as more biased than not.
of course my opinions are biased as well -- I've worked with Facebook running their incubator program in 2009, and I used to work for Founders Fund, one of their early investors.
anyway I thought it was fun back & forth, given the limitations of the medium.