> I'm no stats expert by any means, but couldn't you calculate the percentages of each event occuring (and the amount to increment) using bayesian modeling?
No. Probability theory is about working forward from a given model to a set of possible observations. And Bayesian statistics is about working backwards from given observations to which model in a set of models produced them (which is why an old name for Bayesian statistics is 'inverse statistics').
In this case, there is no given set of observations; there's not some game out there which has produced a dataset and you're trying to work backwards to figure out what model that game is using. Instead, you have a bunch of models and you're trying to work forwards to figure out which of them will give you the kind of outputs you want. So, that's probability theory.
No. Probability theory is about working forward from a given model to a set of possible observations. And Bayesian statistics is about working backwards from given observations to which model in a set of models produced them (which is why an old name for Bayesian statistics is 'inverse statistics').
In this case, there is no given set of observations; there's not some game out there which has produced a dataset and you're trying to work backwards to figure out what model that game is using. Instead, you have a bunch of models and you're trying to work forwards to figure out which of them will give you the kind of outputs you want. So, that's probability theory.