It's difficult to think of examples "from this site" because I rarely remember the posters' names.
I would point to cryptocurrencies as a rich source of extremely wrong takes: how bitcoin would replace paypal and credit cards, how government conspiracies would try to fight it, etc. None of those predictions came to pass, to put it mildly. What I can't offer is specific instances of people pivoting from "it's a currency! It even has 'coin' in its name!" to "it's not a currency! It's a store of value". But I'm sure there must be some.
I also remember when here (and, possibly, on slashdot before HN) one overdone "meme" was criticising CSI-style shows for "enhance!" making low-res images of license plates readable. "You cannot recover information that isn't there!" the comment would go, and it was the easiest upvote to get.
Today, there are plenty of AI demos that can, indeed, reconstruct license plates from low-res. Turns out the information wasn't actually lost. Unfortunately, I'm denied the gratification of all those people writing apologies, and I can't prove that they are the ones posting "It's not intelligence, it's just statistics!" today.
Nuclear power might be another example on a pretty good multi-decades run of varying other reactor technologies (pebble bed, fusion, etc) always on the cusp of breakthrough. This example is especially funny, because the actual scientists working on energy, and even the supposedly stupid politicians, have now created alternatives that are safe, clean, and close to competing with even coal in economic terms, let alone the far more expensive nuclear tech. Yet the wider tech community disregards this economic argument, and insists on fighting the public on safety. They just can't let go because they feel they were wronged on that issue in the 80s and 90s. Which is at least plausible, but it just doesn't really matter any more. There's a strong undercurrent of cultural grievances here, as if people were forever living in the science fiction of their youth.
well yes, I was being sarcastic but I'm glad it sparked this high value comment you wrote. It is easy to see how the 'consensus narrative' changes, as the accounts are censored and their comments are in fact promoted by the collective community. But it is impossible to see who was part of that collective community.
I would point to cryptocurrencies as a rich source of extremely wrong takes: how bitcoin would replace paypal and credit cards, how government conspiracies would try to fight it, etc. None of those predictions came to pass, to put it mildly. What I can't offer is specific instances of people pivoting from "it's a currency! It even has 'coin' in its name!" to "it's not a currency! It's a store of value". But I'm sure there must be some.
I also remember when here (and, possibly, on slashdot before HN) one overdone "meme" was criticising CSI-style shows for "enhance!" making low-res images of license plates readable. "You cannot recover information that isn't there!" the comment would go, and it was the easiest upvote to get.
Today, there are plenty of AI demos that can, indeed, reconstruct license plates from low-res. Turns out the information wasn't actually lost. Unfortunately, I'm denied the gratification of all those people writing apologies, and I can't prove that they are the ones posting "It's not intelligence, it's just statistics!" today.
Nuclear power might be another example on a pretty good multi-decades run of varying other reactor technologies (pebble bed, fusion, etc) always on the cusp of breakthrough. This example is especially funny, because the actual scientists working on energy, and even the supposedly stupid politicians, have now created alternatives that are safe, clean, and close to competing with even coal in economic terms, let alone the far more expensive nuclear tech. Yet the wider tech community disregards this economic argument, and insists on fighting the public on safety. They just can't let go because they feel they were wronged on that issue in the 80s and 90s. Which is at least plausible, but it just doesn't really matter any more. There's a strong undercurrent of cultural grievances here, as if people were forever living in the science fiction of their youth.