> if you have a master's degree ... you will most likely get your H1-B visa
It's "most likely", if your definition of "most likely" is 51%.
Let's calculate the probability:
• In 2018, there were 95,885 applicants with a Masters degree or higher[1]. Out of 190,098 total applicants.
• There are 20,000 spots available for U.S. Master's degree holders, and 65,000 spots for everyone. (Ignoring the fact that there's a reservation of 1,400 for Chile and 5,400 for Singapore.)
• Your probability of rejection in the masters lottery is 1-(20000/95885) = 0.7914
• Your probability of rejection in the general lottery is 1-(65000/(190098-20000)) = 0.6179
• These are independent events; the probability of being rejected in both is: 0.6179 x 0.7914 = 0.489
• If you flip that, your probability of being selected in the lottery with a U.S. Master's degree is 0.51, ie. 51%.
It's "most likely", if your definition of "most likely" is 51%.
Let's calculate the probability:
• In 2018, there were 95,885 applicants with a Masters degree or higher[1]. Out of 190,098 total applicants.
• There are 20,000 spots available for U.S. Master's degree holders, and 65,000 spots for everyone. (Ignoring the fact that there's a reservation of 1,400 for Chile and 5,400 for Singapore.)
• Your probability of rejection in the masters lottery is 1-(20000/95885) = 0.7914
• Your probability of rejection in the general lottery is 1-(65000/(190098-20000)) = 0.6179
• These are independent events; the probability of being rejected in both is: 0.6179 x 0.7914 = 0.489
• If you flip that, your probability of being selected in the lottery with a U.S. Master's degree is 0.51, ie. 51%.
[1] https://redbus2us.com/h1b-historical-data-lottery-vs-85k-quo...