This 4% rule is based off the Trinity study, but you are making a common mistake in interpreting the results.

>...The 4% refers to the portion of the portfolio withdrawn during the first year; it is assumed that the portion withdrawn in subsequent years will increase with the consumer price index (CPI) to keep pace with the cost of living. The withdrawals may exceed the income earned by the portfolio, and the total value of the portfolio may well shrink during periods when the stock market performs poorly. It is assumed that the portfolio needs to last thirty years.

The important part is that there is absolutely no guarantee that "you can withdraw 4% forever." They found that in the different time periods they studied that taking 4% would mean the portfolio would last 30 years before being exhausted. That might be fine if the person works to 65, but might not work out very well if they retire much earlier. (The paper also allowed for increasing the amount taken due to inflation, so if you can survive on the 4% the portfolio should last longer.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_study

Is there a consistent, low risk way of getting 7%/yr. I invested in a few ETFs and am down 1% since 2018. How does one go about doing this reliably?

If you want low risk, go with a CD. For anything above a couple percent, you need to invest for a longer period of time: at least 10 years...

I've been getting a consistent 10% from eREITs for several years now.

Do you invest in those using a self directed IRA? And is the 10% coming from interest income rather than NAV appreciation?

I've been looking into several private REITs in the past, and their return is indeed in the 10% ballpark (usually 10% is the ceiling), mostly distributed as interest income. The problem with that is that if you don't hold them in a tax sheltered account, your 10% will easily become 5% after taxes, since interest income is taxed at your marginal rate, so if you're at the peak of your earning career in a coastal city, 50%+ marginal tax rate is not at all uncommon.

In comparison, broad cap index funds are much much more tax efficient via qualified dividends and long term capital gains, so to get 5% after tax from those you need much less than 10% returns.

I decided to give up on investing in private REITs, I don't like the idea of taking a substantial amount of risk just to then send all the premium to Uncle Sam, and being a traditional W2 employee, access to self directed IRA is not worth the trouble.

Many people (not saying it's you) like to boast about their pre-tax return: the only thing that counts is how much you're keeping after taxes.

What eREITs are you investing in?

I use fundraise.com, iirc the fund was for some apartment buildings in Brooklyn

Are these traded on an exchange?

I think you mean 25%. 25X would mean a savings rate of 96%.

I think they mean save 25x regardless of how long it takes to do so.