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According to my recent MSF course somewhere around 60% of motorcycle fatalities and serious injuries are self inflicted. Some 40% involve more than 0 alcohol.

Nothing made me feel safer on my new motorcycle than learning that stat. Don’t do dumb shit and your personal danger per mile can be quite okay.

Also you’re most likely to die in your first and your third year. Then the probability drops off a cliff.



First and third? What about the second


Likely the same effect as airplane pilots, where the 100th through 250th flight hours of your career are the most dangerous.

Stage 1: unskilled, unaware => die

Stage 2: unskilled, aware => not die

Stage 3: unskilled, confident => die

Stage 4: skilled => live

Difference is that certificated flight instructors won't let you solo until you're well into Stage 2. But any noob squid with a credit card can ride off a lot with a liter-class bike, no questions asked.


Does this to private pilots?


I think you meant to include "apply" somewhere in there. If so, then yes. I don't know anything about military flight training, but except for that I believe every pilot starts out as a private pilot.


Lower chance than first and third. First year you’re a newb and likely to make mistakes. Third year you get confident and sloppy and likely to make mistakes.

Most common way to die is running off the road when going too fast into a corner. Followed by being too aggressive in intersections and failing to avoid other people making mistakes or not seeing you.

If a car forces right of way and you could’ve stopped but didn’t, it’s your fault. Even tho legally it’s their fault but you’re the one with less crumple zones so you gotta drive defensively.


I thought it was mileage not years. First 2k miles are second most dangerous. Next 2k miles are most dangerous because you get comfortable enough to make mistakes.




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