Well, he explains all deferred spend.

Deferred spending is quite unnatural. That I can work 1 hour today and buy youghurt in 2 years is an artifact of our system.

But this also relies on someone making that youghurt in 2 years from now.

It is that key dogma that will likely be under pressure for future pensioners.

It is well known that smartphones can be difficult to use with dry skin - like most elderly have

I think this misses the point.

Excessive scrolling is like excessive eating, smoking, or snorting coke.

It is not healthy and not indicative of a full filling life.

Yes, so 80% of 100 hours is considerably less than 80% of 600 hours

You get 80% done in 20% of the time. The LLM shrinks that 20%. So a 100 task maybe takes 5 hours instead of 20 which is great. But the remaining 80 hours are not as improved. So a 100hr job takes ~85 hours which is very good.

This is in-line with Googles study showing about a 10% productivity increase and other research I’ve read. I suspect this will increase with more integrations and workflow adaptations.

But even after power tools changed how quickly carpenters can frame and rough-in a house, the finishing work (which uses power tools too) still takes the majority of the time.

This seems to be an entirely AI promoted post.

dang: Can we get stuff like this out?

It might seem so, but it is not an AI promoted post. The book was finished with the AI tools, but a bulk of it was written by myself plus the structure and direction.

And I am human, who first finished a similar course roughly 20 years ago, worked as a TA and taught students programming and algorithms

I didn't talk about the book.

I talked about the first 5 comments on the thread, all by new accounts.

It seems like an AI campaign. not organic up votes.

OK, I am not sure who these are. I would not promote my post like this. They are indeed new accounts

> The troubling thought I had is that AI does not displace the technicians, or the vending machines. It replaces the manager.

This is really why ai will have a more profound impact on the society: it is fundamentally changing the hierarchy of conpetence we have gotten so accustomed to.

Why the difference that I’ve seen the exact opposite? It brutally reinforces it. It’s no longer the ability to do a task that is valuable, it’s the ability to understand what tasks need to be done.

Yes. So only 2% (down from 90%)of the population is needed in farming now to produce for the rest of 98%.

That is fine because there are other parts of the value chain these 98% people fit into.

With the development of Ai I don't see new areas to graduate into.

So you are right: there will be people left. But it is not clear what the masses can up skill themselves to do.

Nah, pre 4.5 it was not comfortable to use agentic coding.

The joker here is: what is the purpose now of the manager who's job was to keep 7 employees happy?

One day the first insurance company will require a company to use an Ai accountant to get a discount on the insurance.

At that day it is over for consulting.

Yep.

I have started to say that it will be irresponsible for people to. Manually write code in a year or two from now - and I am setting the systems I work for up to that.

It will happen sooner than later.

Already now I can not compete with agentic programming.