You should backtest this strategy over the last 20 years before you make serious decisions off of the vibe from internet comments

20 years is not enough.

If you just look at the past 20 years, the US has had exceptional returns compared to the rest of the world.

The thing is, historically, high PE ratios like what we're seeing in the US do not correlate with short term returns that are as high. Expected future returns decrease as the PE ratios go up in a pretty linear fashion.

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional...

Why 20 years? Just because we know, post hoc, the usa outperformed other places in the last 20 years, in no way means the next 20 years will be the same.

If you want a different point to backtest from, try Japan in the 80s and early 90s

What's the point of backtesting? Does backtesting say anything about the future?

The point of backtesting is to allow you to do what you want to do with a veneer of being data driven.

it's been pretty funny seeing people who did not predict Claude Code's success and previously said the whole sector was a nonsense dead end now saying, well okay there's one massively successful killer app, but what if that's the only one ever?

It’s the second killer app. The first was AI Chat. It was genuinely game changing and still is.

The scrutiny is because the actions of the company suggest that the company itself has no idea what another killer app could be. Let alone enough to reach a 1T valuation.

The whole sector is still quite likely a nonsense dead end.

fortunately, you aren't only operating on representations, right? lemme check my Schopenhauer right quick...

the people that want to make sure the AI never gives you any "potentially dangerous information" also want to rigorously control your google search results, and also what books you're allowed to read

And what bathroom you go into, and what your genitals look like.

are these "technological advancements" in storage in the room with us right now? because I'm looking at today's price per TB and it's higher than it was in 2020

did you calculate it with real inflation adjusted price? not the BS numbers in financial media, FED etc. Since 2020 unlimited printer, inflation is not few %.

What authoritative number did you have in mind, oh economic sage?

The correct number would still be somewhat negative (deflationary), as you'd expect. BLS says -8% https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SEEE01?output_view=d...

connectors are bad for signal integrity and GDDR is particularly picky about this

We're talking about ordinary RAM to augment, like a cache.

Not as GPU VRAM expansion.

"repeatedly struck down" means somebody keeps bringing it back

They're proposals by a minority. I'd like to see it go to see chat control go to grave permanently, but I'd also rather not that the democratic system allows for the permanent barring an impossible to define class of proposals from even being proposed. Or do you have other solutions?

I'm definitely for creating EU directives that enhances digital privacy rights and sovereignty to block whole classes of privacy-endangering surveillance proposals in the future. That seems like the best solution to me. It's much better than allowing those proposals to be made again and again until they are passed in some shady package deal. Even if such a proposal is struck down by local laws, constitutions, or the ECHR, once they have the foot in the door, they will only be modified minimally to comply with the constitution.

you've posted this multiple times and it's not actually true. go read the ingredients list on a supermarket burger

You're right, it's more salami, hot dogs and other meat products. But you're right on burgers themselves for the most part.

> go read the ingredients list on a supermarket burger

Perhaps a tangent, but they're not required to list "chlorine" as an ingredient if the slaughterhouse washes the beef with bleach to kill bacteria.

they're obviously trying to steer customers to the monthly subscription instead of the pay-per-token API.

now, the consensus of the commentards on this website, who don't have access to any of anthropics financial data, is that the monthly subscriptions are a money loser!

so either the leading AI company's business dev team is wrong or the Jacker News comment section is wrong, it is a mystery

no, the other such labeled companies are foreign owned firms like Huawei that the government never intended to do business with in the first place