So in summary, your statement is that you’ve “come around to trusting” this “pathological liar”?

> If AI companies have any sort of sense in them, they'd be well-advised to consider relocating to Europe.

Too late now. They wouldn't be allowed to relocate in the name of national security.

Coding with sufficiently precise plan takes almost all real work from the implementator, doesn't it? So it's not a fair comparison...

> no one actually knows Claude's cost of inference

There were some rumors stating that their margin is around 70%. So they could go much cheaper probably, talking inference only. The other thing is R&D cost...

> writing is how you learn to think.

There's also reading. A lot of reading can substitute some writing.

EDIT: Actually, I'd say that at first you need to do a lot of reading and _then_ writing can help your thinking as well.

It’s the same here. Inference alone is profitable. It’s the R&D cost of making a new model that drives up expenses.

This doesn't make sense. Inference alone is profitable but you have to continually train new models. There isn't a point where you will have a model that is the final model and you can just serve inference and profit, you always have to train more models.

It's not at all the same as what Amazon was doing. At any point, Amazon could have turned off the expansion engine and turned on the profits. AI companies don't have that luxury, if they stop training they'll just fall behind and die because they don't have a competitive model. They are locked into training in order to be competitive, they are not by default profitable and choosing growth over profit.

I think there's another point of view - let's consider each model as an investment. It is now sufficient that each model earns more than it cost to develop. And this generally holds (I heard that GPT-4.5 was a notable exception).

> At any point, Amazon could have turned off the expansion engine and turned on the profits

Maybe, but they wouldn't be in the dominant position they are today if they had turned off the expansion early - spending to suppress big competitors like Wallmart in the online shopping market pays dividends.

But they spent money that was earned already, not money that was raised or borrowed.

Yeah they can probably be almost entirely depreciated within 2-3 years, and pretty substantially front-loaded within that. Like, the expensive part of being a CPU company is making new ones, but Intel can't exactly just rest on their laurels and sell Pentiums for the rest of time.

It's simple I think - over time the price will go down. According to some analyses the price for equal intelligence declined 10-1000x per year, depending on the domain.

It probably won't be the same again but I still think we can bet on radically cheaper Mythos level intelligence in the future.

I recommend mapy.com (mobile app and web app too when on computer) - they mostly use OSM data and rendering of map tiles is great. Also offline maps etc.

There are several great options, besides mapy, e.g. Organic Maps and CoMaps also work pretty great. There are also some really good bike optimized apps (like NodeMapp for the Dutch cycle network).

But I generally prefer to use a Garmin GPS or watch. They work for days without charging (the older models even work with two AA batteries), very robust (e.g. their gpsr survives drops), work well offline, and transflective displays work better in direct sunlight.

For planned routes, I make then in NodeMapp or some other focused application and send the GPX overs to a gpsmap unit or Fenix watch. Many national parks, etc. also have great GPX files for recommended hiking/cycling routes.

Good thing is that index funds don't hold stocks at market capitalization but only at free float value. So a company whose shares are mostly held by founders, employees, and strategic investors gets a weight well below its headline valuation.

Most don’t. The one that is the center of much of the controversy around these IPOs, NASDAQ-100, doesn’t use float adjustments.

A lot of people have been using it to passively invest in AI (via QQQ).

It’s nonsensical for a variety of reasons but we live an era of the stock market just being another casino…

I believe it's the opposite :) All major indices (S&P500, MSCI, FTSE...) use free-float adjustments. And recently also NASDAQ - they've changed to cap of 3x the value of free-floating shares.

You are correct. That’s what I intended to say but I see that worded that comment unclearly.

Time to invest in some value-stocks index funds then :)