I agree. Also, we already tried to rely on the goodwill of the people and here we are with warming speeding up.
We need some mechanism that penalizes polluters, benefits low emitters, and stops/limits/taxes/... worldwide shipping when local alternatives are available to avoid these [1] abominations.
I am not sure how not directly linked to global warming. I am currently on the phone but I remember a study that mentioned that Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh would see a deadly heat (wet bulb temperatures) from basically 0 as it is right now to 30 days/year by 2050 or 2060. I can't remember right now.
If that is not linkable to global warming I am not sure what is. And that is a huge event. In Europe we are struggling with accomodating perhaps 10M people. What happens when 1.5B come knocking because if they stay they die?
Chapter 1 of "The Ministry of the Future" describes a fictional wet bulb event. It's grisly and horrific and I highly recommend you read this chapter, it changed my view on climate change.
I think the least of your worries will be immigrants when an imperialistic nation with superior military power realizes that the annexation of your land is necessary for its survival.
I actually am moderately concerned with that to be honest. If the US doesn't have free and fair midterms I don't think it's really that paranoid to be worried about it.
I'm surprised even the smarter democrats are saying that stupid line. Distraction would imply there are still to be people who have not yet learned and formed an opinion on the Epstein files. Everyone knows about these already and made their positions about it.
As it turns out the most abhorrent things can come out with those Epstein files and it doesn't seem to hurt Trumps support among his base any. Doesn't seem to be threatening any legal action for him or implicated parties. Once again only Maxwell is in jail, somehow, with dozens and dozens of witnesses stepping forward. Democrats have been grandstanding on this man for 10 years now and haven't been able to stop him. I think by this point it is clear he is going to get away with everything even if people want to write about him "flailing." Him flailing is literally him achieving all his domestic and foreign policy goals right now and his base couldn't be more pleased...
From his own FBI department a few days ago. Federal court already found him liable for rape of Jean Carrol. Why are you giving this man any benefit of the doubt when he quacks like a rapist pedophile?
Unfortunately most political systems around the world reward short term results, not long term thinking.
Just look here in the USA -- the Democrats tried to do some forward thinking things like subsidizing solar and wind, and they were rewarded by losing at the ballot box (of course that isn't the only reason, but it's one of many).
There are no rewards for long term thinking, so it's hard to get anyone to do it.
> (of course that isn't the only reason, but it's one of many).
This is disingenuous. It's one of many in that it may have contributed 0.0001%. If they wouldn't have done that, would they currently have more power? Absolutely not, believing otherwise means being clueless about what has motivated people to vote in certain ways.
It's definitely more than .0001%. Look at the campaigns. How much time did the GOP spend harping on windmills and solar subsidies and "clean coal". Calling out democrats for trying to make the environment better at extra cost to US citizens was a huge part of their campaign.
I expected you to say this, but hoped you wouldn't. Of course I know they talk about it. GOP campaigns say and do a lot of things, there's dozens of topics they shout about. From Benghazi to Hillary's Emails to gender-neutral emails to immigrants to indeed coal/renewables and so on. You could easily name 30 topics.
The topics have different purposes. Fossil fuels vs renewables in particular hasn't won the reps a single race, I repeat. Every race they've won, they would've won without it. And every race they've lost, they would've lost without it. The purpose of bringing up that particular topic for them isn't to help win close races.
So, those of us with no suede in this race, who will see no reward from the system anyway, are the only people who can be trusted to make change. That means you and I (and I dare say a significant portion of the populace).
It's not obvious what we can do (individual actions taken within the context of a system are dwarfed by structural forces of the system), but we're the only ones who are going to do it. So, let's assume we did fix things, and we're looking back from 2050, doing a retrospective. What things did we end up doing, that got us to that point?
There's nothing you as an individual can do, or even a small group of individuals. This is where government is supposed to work. Using its power to force everyone to do something for the collective good that isn't profitable.
Almost all emissions come from factories. There are only two ways to reduce that -- a global set of rules that increases costs to reduce emissions, and an overall reduction in consumption, via a carbon tax.
industry, transport and home use (heating & A/C mostly) are all roughly 30% of emissions.
(another way of splitting it says electricity, industry, heating, and transport are roughly almost 25% each. It depends whether you count electricity on its own or bundle it with how its used)
But I agree with you about solutions. The market will quickly bankrupt any companies that induce extra costs to decarbonify. It's the governments job to ensure that externalized costs like CO2 emissions are internalized via carbon taxes. (or alternatives to carbon taxes, which are worse)
Factories are staffed by people. Those people have the physical capability to change the way the factories operate. Any individual person attempting to modify / replace the factory equipment against their line manager's will would quickly find themselves out of a job, but collective action among factory workers (e.g. unions) might work. So might getting the line managers on board with the proposal, if you can get enough buy-in that "we used our discretion" is an acceptable answer: it's not like most companies actively want to pollute, rather that it's usually cheaper to do so, and they don't care about not. Being able to say "this move reduces turnover among our workers, slashing training costs; and you can probably use it in the B2B / B2C [delete as appropriate] marketing, since environmentalism sells in some markets; and this way, we're prepared for future legislation expected in jurisdictions A, B and C" may be sufficient justification. Alternatively, there may be ways to exploit the principal-agent problem.
I'm sure there are people who've specced out detailed proposals for this sort of thing. There might even be previous cases where they've succeeded, which we can learn from. Neither of those "two ways" you mentioned are things that I can do, but I may be able to slightly reduce the intensity of the opposition. (Companies tend to like when regulations require their competitors to do things they're already doing, after all.)
> What happens when 1.5B come knocking because if they stay they die?
Like let them build few of those sci-fi domes and let them keep buying disposable bottled oxygen? I don't get the pessimism. India makes its own rockets. Pakistan has nukes. Why are they supposed to be incapable of holding the nation together on Mars-like Earth?
Tokyo is already hitting 40C/100F at >90% RH during summers. It's already mildly unsurvivable. Nobody cares. Maybe in 10-20 years we'd be wearing spacesuits, but do anyone seriously think the equatorial regions will be uninhabitable and land prices on northern Europe is going to skyrocket???
I don't know for certain, but moderators (on a company Discord) are likely random people in a 3rd world country that are payed peanuts and that is their only income. If higher ups tell them "I don't want to see the Microslop word anywhere" they just do it.
You should be angry at the higher ups that instead of saying: "maybe they are right and we can do better" they decided to hide the problem through censorship. Which, btw, always has the opposite effect of putting what you are trying to hide in the spotlight.
You can do that with Onnx. You can graft the preprocessing layers to the actual model [1] and then serve that. Honestly, I already thought that ONNX (CPU at least) was already low level code and already very optimized.
@Author - if you see this is it possible to add comparisons (ie "vanilla" inference latencies vs timber)?
I find the nuclear motivation an excuse. I mean, enrichment plants or not, if Iran wants a few nukes I am pretty sure that Russia would part with some enriched material and smuggle it pretty easily to Iran.
My theory is that Israel has dirt (Epstein files maybe) on Trump and holds him by the balls. The second idea is that this is an obfuscation campaign to have the public opinion forget about Epstein, the state of the real economy, the falling approval rates, or all of the above.
What makes you think Trump is not interested in this himself they just offered him hotels and land. Him getting blackmailed is I feel a lot of people that have voted for him are using as a coping mechanism.
The attack on Iran proves the point just like Russia attacking Ukraine if you want to protect your territories you need nuclear weapons. Canada, Greenland and countries in South America should also look to acquire nuclear weapons as once they are done with Iran you will be the next.
On paper you're right, but in reality while doing so you give the incentive to higher-ups to set in place measures that make the life of their underlings atrocious. Mandatory RTO for no clear reason, jumping through hoops to get anything done, cut to budgets, ... . At least that what I experienced and talking with friends that was the case for them as well.
I did. I moved to sovereign debt (not US), bonds and stocks of boring companies (staples, energy, medicine, ...) that have at least AA rating. Might miss out a few months of glamorous growth, but fuck that, it reached a point that just one company hiccuping will send the whole thing tumbling (IMHO).
Energy and healthcare has big AI exposure too. If it pops, you're going to be better off but not totally spared. I suppose that's probably a smart move though...
I went with a bit of Roche, Novartis, ... So something that would at least cushion the fall with dividends and not being in the GenAI crossfire since they definitely use AI/ML (I got them through an ETF). Also almost all my assets are now either CHF or Euro denominated/hedged. I am also not comfortable with the dollar weakening and the next Fed head probably cutting rates again like Trump wishes
You’d be surprised. A lot of biotech is using genai not just traditional ml. And hiring for genai and LLM. They want to build their own chatbots, only trained on their own data and primary literature not reddit comments from armchair biologists.
Yeah, I figure. The thing is that I have a mix of bonds and stocks. Bonds should remain stable or even rally a bit if a crash happens. I mean, usually governments cut interest rates in time of crisis, so existing bonds should go up. It is definitely a hard time to invest as everything feels expensive
Oracle debt holders are sweating profusely right now I imagine. How does OpenAI gets 300B$ to pay Oracle [1] when nVidia has to be convinced to shell out "just" 30B for actually purchasing nVidia hardware.
Easy, they just have to sell their overpriced vram chips (which haven't been manufactured yet), from their GPUs (which haven't been bought yet) which are in their data centers (the ones they're planning to build "soon"). It really isn't rocket science
Why would that happen? Extremely little will happen to the US economy if OAI fails. The government has absolutely no reason to bail them out beyond pure corruption.
OAI's most valuable assets are hardware that will be worthless in 6-8 years. The second most valuable assets are the code which other companies are doing just fine with their own. The third is the hype halo that keeps them getting these deals that are disconnected from reality. Nothing there is holding up the economy.
They only have 4,000 employees. If they all lost their jobs, it would barely be a blip in a monthly jobs report. It's not as though millions of people will lose their jobs disrupting the economy like COVID.
The only downside is some imaginary money vanishes and some investors take a haircut on the imaginary money.
"National Security", and the usual fluff about "ensuring that the United States remains at the forefront of cutting-edge AI technology". "Adversaries" will almost certainly be mentioned, "China" specifically has a 50% chance to be name-dropped.
> United States remains at the forefront of cutting-edge AI technology
then the US can just call up Google and Anthropic and use their on-par if not better cutting-edge AI technology. OpenAI just isn't important enough and alternatives exist to fill the crater they leave. Also, the public isn't a huge fan of AI taking all the jobs and it's an election year (albeit mid-term).
Their most valuable asset is the connections the CEO and others on the board have. The US is a banana republic, and the government chooses the winners. There's a continously escalating level of blatant corruption at the top level, and OAI positions themselves as the next recipient. Betting on OAI is betting on how far american democracy will fall. I don't think the odds are bad.
I said literally nothing about any specific person or officeholder. That said, as today's SCOTUS ruling reinforces, the president doesn't control the bank book. MAGA will riot (again) if the admin actually bailed out OAI.
Lehman was allowed to go under because hey, their liabilities numbered in the low billions plus they are such dicks anyway. Especially the Dick in charge.
Salient point being, it didn't seem like that big a deal. Compared to the high-powered AI deals it seems like nothing at all.
The next day, an important monetary fund broke the buck because well, they were into Lehman and that was no longer great business.
This was the OG monetary fund, not some fly by night operation and suddenly everyone was redeeming all there was to redeem with a religious fervor. This faith centered around Wall Street Broker the Redeemer, something like that. Not much of a religion but then these are very down-to-earth people.
Then AIG called. They bragged about their stroke of genius idea to raid their vaults for commercial paper, raising well over 10B just like that — paper they didn’t even know they had! Sounds crazy? Read the full story, it’s way crazier than can be put in a paragraph.
Briefly pausing here to let it sink in just how pedigreed the pedigree of these masters of the universe is. They got it all — the degrees, the grit, the genius. Only the creme de la creme get hired for the elevated job at the higher echelons of Wall Street skyscrapers.
But back to the story. The vault loot was impressive but it wouldn’t cut it.
Realizing now the surprising fact of these institutions being interconnected and this contagion well beyond controllable with social distancing (from Lehman), Hank Paulson, the hero of the story (the film version at least, the real story leaves you with a different impression of this shrewd operator) makes the difficult decision to tell the Pres that “oh hey, we’re fked but, idk, a trillion dollars could help a lot”.
His aides don’t like the t-word much, so they kinda vibe out a more palatable number and the rest is bailout history.
If you think Oracle took a risk taking out that loan, think again. That loan is the hedge. A gun to the head of the vaunted Markets, free but admittedly somewhat feeble, makes for a powerful persuasion tactic. They won’t even have to ask for the bailout — Wall Street will do it for them. Systemic risk. Need they say more?
Different than 2008? No doubt. The numbers flying around the DC buildout Ouroboros dwarf the 2008 headscratchers and the companies involved made sure to link up like tentacle monsters getting it on. Interconnected as they were, 2008 investment banks still were somewhat in competition with one another -- the 2026 batch of trouble are in bed with each other.
When you're 30k in debt and insolvent, it's your problem. 30mil in debt, the bank's problem. 30B? Not a problem at all, certainly nothing the Fed couldn't solve, for you and the bank. And solve it they will for what's the alternative? Show must go on.
I'm sorry, but this line is so condescending I can't bring myself to read whatever else you wrote. I really can't stand it when people feel the need to be so demeaning when disagreeing.
I completely understand what happened with the finance bubble in 07/08. This is nothing like it, at all.
your post doesn't make a lot of sense and it doesn't matter anyway. What happened in 2008/9 and what may eventually unfold in the AI bubble aren't comparable.
> Show must go on.
the show will go on without bailing out OpenAI, that much should be obvious to everyone.
There is a distinct possibility that the credit expansion for the datacenter buildout will turn the AI bubble into a 2008 like situation. That would be painful.
True., however I think it'll probably be more like the fiber buddle in the dotcom era, withsome bankruptcies and a lot of excess capacity. I don't think it'll spread as wide as 08 because that had bad debt sprinkled so far and wide that everything was infected. I think this is more contained. I think. I hope. Because the pop is coming...
OpenAI is not the one who will be requiring the bailout. they aren't even a public company, for one.
Oracle, Coreweave or both will be the ones requiring it, ostensibly. in reality it's much larger than that.
tremendous money has been invested into AI already, commitments for far more spending still have been made, contracts signed and funds borrowed. the DC building sites are abuzz with expensive effort and soon racks will welcome fresh batches of not-so-fresh previous gen GPUs.
investment is roaring like a locomotive joy-ride atop tracks freshly laid. AI executives are also roaring on any talk show and podcast that will have them but the path to profitability still leads through a maze of smoke and mirrors and hasn't been exactly charted.
you think the LPs of VC firms will just write off the losses when those are realized? O&C will just default on loans and their many creditors will let them?
there are tens if not hundreds of billions already locked in the storm cloud beyond the point of no return. financiers from all corners of finance and sundry are already holding a compartment or two in that bag, each.
when the bag turns out to be largely filled with hot air, i suppose all those powerful bagholders will just go "welp, we dun goof'd" and hold a Sprint Retro about the learnings that will be their consolation prize for the financial haircuts suffered.
perhaps if they had no other option, they would. they do have that other option and the debts in risk of default which, something tells me, creditors won't be able to write off without being pushed to the brink themselves, are the wedge already planted in the financial system the bailout breeze draft will gently blow through.
P.S. it's not that Oracle or any of the Magnate 7 are devoid of means to patch up the fabric of a battered balance sheet.
that wasn't the case in 2008, either. it's a little known and even less appreciated fact that parties tied up in Lehman on day of Chapter 11 filing were made whole to the tune of 100 cents on the dollar after all was said and done in the post-bankruptcy proceedings. sure it took 10 years but it happened.
in the heat of the moment, though, there's a burning hole in the pocket, runs on the bank imminent if not in motion already and 401 millions of voices crying out in anguish.
that's no time for methodical disbursement, it's time for the hair-on-fire vaudeville act Wall Street had gotten rather good at throughout the numerous reruns of that particular number they performed to date.
it will be politically absolutely unacceptable and a burning public grievance for numerous news cycles. so what? as if that spectacle of manifest outrage, justified and futile, was anything but jolly good entertainment for those looking on at it from the gallery.
If you search on YouTube for "carney walks out" or similar you'll see several videos with AI vibes (hard to tell at a superficial glance) about Carney interrupting crude oil exports or similar stuff. In the URL there's one of these videos.
Normal news outlet didn't report anything on the subject, but some of these videos are approaching 1M views (which is frightening).
We need some mechanism that penalizes polluters, benefits low emitters, and stops/limits/taxes/... worldwide shipping when local alternatives are available to avoid these [1] abominations.
[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/1e4zl...
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