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And puts are highly manipulated by MMs so you have to really study the chain and how it behaves before you have a chance to buy the contracts at a fair price. MMs will flood the market with contracts and devalue yours even when the price is moving in your direction. I highly suggest people think twice about trading options, they are best used as hedges for large positions during particularly vulnerable periods.

I’m not convinced. If you think you know what the fair price is for a put, then you can bid that price. If you don’t think you know what the fair price is, then you shouldn’t be trading options.

There are reasons for not trading options, but the main reason is “you know less about price movement than you think you do”.


Realistically, if you don't have the volume to be a market maker, there's no point bidding anything except the current market price. Either the price is higher than your bid, and your order won't fill (so why place it?) or the price is lower than your bid, and you should expect the market knows something you don't.

> Either the price is higher than your bid, and your order won't fill (so why place it?) or the price is lower than your bid, and you should expect the market knows something you don't.

There is no risk-free way to trade. You can place a market order and guarantee execution, bearing the risk that you get a bad price. You can place a limit order, and guarantee price, bearing the risk that your trade doesn’t execute.

It sounds like you’re starting with the assumption that you don’t know whether the options are undervalued or overvalued, and if you start with that assumption, yes, the correct answer is don’t buy or sell the option (barring some other reason to buy or sell). Duh. But the reason the market “knows something you don’t” is because it’s full of people doing research. Sometimes, the person doing the research is you, and you have an idea of where the price will go. That’s what an edge is. When you have an edge, you can make money, but maybe not very much and not very reliably.

Where it gets ridiculous is when people speculate with SPY options or dumb shit like that. The reason why speculating with SPY is so ridiculous is because it’s just so unlikely that you could get an edge with SPY. But in general? Yes, it’s possible to get an edge.


It would be more helpful to say don't buy options once the trade is obvious. As soon as something has hit the FOMO phase and IV skyrockets and all strikes cost the same, that's a sign you're too late and might want to bet against your thesis or use a different instrument. The financial shoggoths do a reasonably good job ensuring there's no free money. However they're obligated to trade regardless of conditions and sometimes that's their weakness.

Are you accusing market makers of manipulation?

I think it’s possible they already have nukes and want to wait for Israel to over extend themselves so that they can use them for a first strike with maximum efficacy. They’ve done a lot for Russia. The idea that they don’t have nuclear armament is somewhat hard for me to believe.

The whole point of having nukes is letting everyone know you have them.

It depends on your military doctrine, if facing a first strike adversary you wouldn’t necessarily want them to believe you capable.

Unemployment increasing, CPI fairly stable, and credit tightening will cause the Fed to open the spigot. Here is a good entry for precious metals.

What you argue is a non-sequitur and regardless of case law really makes no sense when the spirit of the action is to replicate something. Reasonable people would say that replicating and disseminating code with the express purpose of avoiding copyright is a violation of copyright and why it exists in the first place.

Just because something is trivial enough to copy does not mean it was trivial to conceive of and codify. Mens rea really does matter when we are talking about defrauding intellectual property holders and stealing their opportunity.


"Reasonable people would say that replicating and disseminating code with the express purpose of avoiding copyright is a violation of copyright and why it exists in the first place."

But then how can the FSF reimplement AT&T utilities? The FSF didn't invent grep. They wrote a new version of it from scratch under a different license.


Yes the entire enterprise and legal precedent is full of shit with intellectual property law being abused left and right. For example, I don’t think Google should have been able to copy the Java API for Kotlin/Android. Java should have just died and everyone would have been better off. By making copyright more weak, free software reaps what it sews.

I love FOSS but I hate that it’s been used to replicate existing code or serve as a way to outsource corporate tech debt. The shadow of profit looms over it all.


This rewrite of GNU coreutils to rust comes to mind https://github.com/uutils/coreutils

Someone should take that and submit it upstream.

Civil War Hospital Clean Room equivalent

SQL is so simple “needing to learn” it is a bit like needing learning to tie your shoes. Not really any challenge worth mentioning.

I disagree.

All of these foundation concepts are vocabulary.

We need vocabulary in order to understand and have reasonable conversations.

Do you need to be an expert? Probably not .. but yes, we should all understand.

I think we'll develop personal moats automatically. Some people don't are naturally uninquisitive. They'll be most at risk.


no they don't need vocabulary, i can vibe code my SQL. for real though, what's the point learning it now for analytics? absolutely none.

Similar point to learning how to capitalise in a sentence.

And learning what analytics actually means (it's not the same as debugging).

Learn how to communicate.


i don't know if this is true or whether people believe this. if you ask other people, they would tell you that sql is a very important skill to learn. i call bs though, like you.

sql is a common interview question, like joining and transformation etc. if its so simple maybe they shouldn't be asking this.


I don't see the contradiction. Something can be both very important and not that difficult to learn and not known by a plurality of interviewees. People ask (and fail) fizz-buzz and that's hardly difficult.

I remember our school getting new computers to replace the 233Mhz G3 iMac computer lab during the Megahertz Wars and the vice principal announcing the purchase of new "screaming fast" 600 Mhz Dell Optiplex GX100. The nice thing is that the G3 iMacs then got pushed out to the classrooms, but it was sad to see Apple lose the spot in the lab. I miss the wonder of playing Pangea Software games for the first time like Bugdom and Nanosaur.

I get the same feeling when thinking about fast food restaurants turning a profit and then usually there is some element I don’t understand like McDonalds land investment play that justifies weaker operational margins. It’s probably going to work out fine but we are too far removed to intuitively get why.

Apes tend to be way more intelligent than humans of any age about how to hold and consume different vegetables and fruits.

Humans today perhaps. People tend to underestimate our abilities in nature because we’ve evolved to be able to shape it. In reality humans had generationally transmitted oral knowledge of food, plus are the only animals that can transform food at will, including from “toxic” to consumable.

It’s not just suicide, it’s a golden parachute from God.

Edit: wow imagine the uses for brainwashing terrorists


Or brainwashing possibilities in general.

To be fair, this is just the automated version of the kind of brainwashing that happens in cults and religions.

And also in the more extreme corners of social media and the MSM.

It's not that Google is saintly, it's that the general background noise of related manipulations is ignored because it's collective and social.

We have a clearly defined concept of responsibility for direct individual harm, but almost no concept of responsibility for social and political harms.


Hopefully annual implicit bias training protects us all.

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