OpenAI & Anthropic are winning right now. I suspect if Chinese companies get ahead in the race the cards will reverse, OpenAI will restart farming goodwill with open models and then winning companies will be releasing closed models.

Besides points already mentioned,

- remote mcps are server driven, meaning the producer can introduce new functionality without requiring all clients to update their skills and clis

- remote mcps are safe as they don't require literal code execution privileges on your system. Many times skills even bundle scripts with `npx`/`uvx` which is basically just `curl npm.com | bash` level of unsafe

Wow that looks really impressive. Both the UI and the content looks good, the game is a bit buggy but still nice!

With AI dependence, unless you are a holdout, offline development isn't really a thing anymore. Perhaps to do some code reviews, but actually producing new code?

That is sad.

Somewhat, it's a tradeoff we are making willingly

I haven't made that tradeoff. I still code myself without agents from time to time.

Nothing changed. You can still code the old way. All those 100x productivity gains are probably closer to 10% productivity gains after you account for all the added debugging and steering.

Doordash and similar are experimenting with autonomous/remotely operated vehicles and porn is getting decimated once good enough uncensored video gen ai gets available. That doesn't sound like viable career choices either.

You can totally get a random "we've detected a suspicious activity, please verify the phone number you've used during registration" form during login.

I have been thinking about this a lot lately. If you look at effects of geopolitical events and who profits and loses, rather than stated intentions. This global oil crisis, the Ukraine crisis, tariffs ect. It's the equivalent of the "the purpose of the system is what it does".

Oil crisis: Trumps friends profit on insider info, US oil industry (also his friends) profits, Russia profits because they are another big oil producer, USD dominance is harmed (also helps Russia), everyone else in the world eats the costs

Ukraine: Russia bleeds, Ukraine bleeds, arms industry profits, politicians in general get something to grandstand on in front of the voters. Personally I believe that this conflict has been artificially prolonged just to amplify the effects

Tariffs: US public eats the costs, Trump profits politically by appearing strong, Trumps friends profit on insider info

Tarriffs: SOP is to take away something in an outrageous amount and manner, then sell it back to the victim. It's basically state extortion.

I don't really get how this stops captcha solving as a service, which is the actual way that scaled recaptcha solving is done? Those things are incredibly cheap and are staffed by humans anyway. Instead of selecting grainy busses, they will just scan the image with their phones.

They'll need a lot of google-certified phones then. And each phone will only be able to do so many verifications until the unique, cryptographically secure ID gets banned by Google.

Google already killed SMS verification market specifically for Google accounts because they reversed the verification from receiving to sending the SMS. Almost a year after, no SMS verification service that made a killing on this is offering an alternative.

So yes, this will definitely affect the captcha solving services.

As a human occasionally writing Rust I've also frequently got stuck in type hell.

Perhaps for some very specific capabilities such as TTS, translation, voice recognition and so on. But for general intelligence models, better hardware just directly allows better models and that doesn't seem to be changing any time soon.

I'm pretty sure that's not linear, so I personally expect the benefits of larger models to diminish. The question is at what point that's the case. I guess a lot of variables play into it, but it is possible that the benefits of running larger models will be too expensive for the little benefit they provide