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“ However, the top devs will earn more than ever. ”

No they won’t. Productivity does not determine the wage rate.


It’s already happening. Top tier devs have two ways of earning way more than before:

1. They can build and sell their own products or services. We are already seeing 1-2 person software companies earning real money. Top devs don’t have to stay in corporate if they think they can generate more revenue on their own.

2. When companies get rid of their B devs without losing productivity, they can pay their A devs more.

I’m in the #2 camp right now. My team shrank by 50% through attrition in the last year. We didn’t hire anyone new when someone left. My pay has increased.


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I’m not desperate at all. It was my company who was desperate to keep me and gave me a huge pay rise. I was already making top tier money.

I threatened to leave to start my own company unless they gave me enough money to make me not want to do it. They did.


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Don't think I need pity from a random person on the internet. ;)

Regardless, I didn't say "many". I said top tier. How you define that is up to you.

There is already ample evidence for top dev talent earning way more than before whether it's through corporate or starting their own company.


Your company might fail then. Because I won’t be fighting to work at your company, I’ll just compete with your company and get paid what I deserve.

We already have CEOs is vendors trying to scare people away from vibe coding their contract away, while I diligently vibe code their contract away.

Not much new here as my entire career has been coding away 3rd party contracts, and it’s now easier than ever.


The whole point is that the company doesnt need you if there is ample supply of developers

My point is that there isn't/won't be an ample supply of developers.

It does, in the higher echelons of performance / seniority.

Junior wages won’t change, and may even get lower.

But, at least at present, the top devs are earning more than ever as their skills are much more leveraged.

I don’t see that changing anytime soon.


curious as to why

most top swe comp comes from equity in the company, which benefits from productivity

not only that but the leveraged nature of swe means top performers are in perpetual shortage and low performers contribute negative productivity

anecdotally weve seen comp rise as the best candidates have multiple competing offers as well as the freedom to start their own business


Because companies can hire one great Dev for $300k instead of 5 mediocre ones for $150k each and get better results.

That supports my point right?

Top devs make more than before


Yes. I agreed with your point.

> “ However, the top devs will earn more than ever. ”

The AI companies will skim all the extra profits.


This reward function goes against the essence of machinery - there is no reward function in machines. That’s what so great about them.

This has been true for god knows how long?

Steve jobs said it - the difference between the average and best software engineer is a huge.

The best software engineers aren’t going away at all. The shittier ones will be using llm’s more so and eventually be out of a job as llm’s improve.


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