The assumptions are that more compute (energy, chips) is needed to get more capable models AND more capable models will result in more spending by companies. That has been correct so far.
Yes, energy and chips are some of the bottlenecks. SpaceX has a potential solution (solar powered data centers in orbit) where they are uniquely advantaged - no one can launch as much or as cheaply as they can.
Datacenters in space might help with energy (that’s a big if, but let’s suppose it works out). How does it help with chips? The chips are still made on Earth, but once you launch them, you add some radiation exposure and you also add a dramatic demise in five years or so. Meanwhile an RTX 3090 still sells for $500 or so.
There were talks in the past about spinning Starlink out. Perhaps the thinking that led them to keep Starlink in is the same thinking about their new data center business (what they got from xAI and will grow in orbit in the future)
Maybe it is a win/win. Anthropic gets desperately needed compute at a fair price. SpaceXAI sells compute at a fair price and gets desperately needed revenues.
XAi purchased Teslas allocation of GPUs, in exchange for Tesla purchasing XAis allocation of GPUs at a later date. This they claim was done because Tesla didnt have their datacentre ready to receive those gpus at that time. I dont see how or who was robbed here.
The article says:
In December, an internal Nvidia memo seen by CNBC said, “Elon prioritizing X H100 GPU cluster deployment at X versus Tesla by redirecting 12k of shipped H100 GPUs originally slated for Tesla to X instead. In exchange, original X orders of 12k H100 slated for Jan and June to be redirected to Tesla.”
Sure, either side could cancel. But Anthropic needs compute, and they found it in SpaceXAI. Why would they cancel the deal unless they don't need more compute or if they could get compute for less elsewhere (but where would that be realistically)?
Anthropic have deals in place to get another 5GW from Amazon, and 5GW from Google, just that it is not available yet. For comparison the total of Colossus #1 and #2 is 1GW
Does xAI have some sort of edge over Anthropic when it comes to buying future compute?
If not, this just seems like grok not being as successful as they would have liked and then finding some other use for the compute they had bought for it while at the same time Anthropic can’t keep up with demand for claude.
Re your first statement, the problem is that there isn't enough compute out there. xAI built their own data centers (and plan to built more -> in orbit). I don't think Anthropic has done that to the same extent and it seems like they will partner with multiple vendors who can provide the compute they need.
"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic, an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee. The agreements may be terminated by either party upon 90 days’ notice."
Hopefully their competitors will keep advancing but that just reinforces that how hard space is and that SpaceX is doing things no one else currently can.
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