where the heck are you seeing OpenAI racing to IPO before anthropic?

on the API, their margins are very high

no, it is discounted expected future cash flows

Yes it can! That's the whole point of RL! it generates slightly out of distribution rollouts, and rewards good rollouts to change the distribution of the output

That's not out of distributíon, that's inside the distribution of the rollout. If you don't create rollouts for the game of Chess then it doesn't know how to play Chess no matter how smart it is at tasks you've created rollouts for. It's structurally stuck in its distribution.

where the heck did you get those parameter numbers from?

Sonnet and Opus are from Elon Musk (given the people he's hired it seems likely it is approximately true). Mythos is quite widely spoken about.

are you sure it's 60 fps and not uncapped?

> and they have nearly 0 false positives

I really don't see how this can be possible unless they're accepting abysmal recall? Perhaps I'm missing something fundamental here, but the idea that AI and non-AI assisted text can be separated with "nearly 0 false positives" just says to me that it's really just a filter for the weakest, most obvious AI generated text. Is that valuable?

Pangram's explicit pitch is extremely low false positives, accepting that a higher rate of false negatives is acceptable.

Anthropic is very big (the biggest AI co?) in B2B, where you don't have ads. Also, if they end up creating a datacenter full of geniuses, ads won't make sense either.

B2B will be hard to compete with vs Google and MSFT, as they can bundle services with Office365 or Google Workspace.

1. you can definitely tell apart an S-curve and an exponential if you look at the derivative(s). AI progress does not seem to be close to the middle of the S-curve. 2. e.g.: a slowdown hasn't shown up in moore's law yet.

It is the case that Anthropic employees have no usage limits. Some people do experiments where they spawn up hundreds of Claude instances just to see if any of them succeed.

Are they using these tests as a form of RLHF?